David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note No.2: A Vulnerable Trajectory For Stock Prices
In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020.
Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note No.1: US–China Trade War
U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected to be passed.
Overshadowed?
Public attention this past week was riveted on the impeachment testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, which totally overshadowed Chairman Powell’s semiannual report and two days of testimony to Congress on monetary policy.
Trade War And No Recession
The United States has gotten itself into a trade war negotiations mess. You’re in a hole. Stop digging!
Opportunities In Japan For Global Equity Investors
The sustained positive, though modest, expansion of the Japanese economy (the third-largest economy in the world) is a stabilizing force for the global economy.
What The FOMC Said
When pressed about what could induce the Fed to adjust its policy stance either by cutting rates further or raising them, Powell indicated that an increase in rates would be driven by an increase in inflation.
Markets & The Deficit
The latest federal deficit numbers show the Trump budget implementation running about $1 trillion annualized.
Brexit Uncertainty For Investors Persists
The exceptional Saturday session of the United Kingdom’s Parliament, the first in 37 years, was expected to produce a decisive yes or no vote on the new Brexit deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson had negotiated with the European Union.
The Market Knows
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Friday, Oct 4 that it would continue to offer a maximum of $75 billion in overnight repurchase agreements and at the same time offer a series of term repos through at least November 4.
Eurozone Economy Risks A Decline With Divided Central Bank
The latest September data for the eurozone economy from IHS Markit present a deteriorating picture, with the demand for goods and services falling at its fastest rate in over six years and a deepening recession in manufacturing.
Repos And Reverse Repos
It remains somewhat of a mystery as to why the sudden pressures have arisen in this market.
Market Commentary – 3Q2019 Review – Market Volatility ETF
The broad market benchmark S&P 500 decreased 3.1% for the week as well, marking its worst week of 2019.
The Payments Modernization Act
Legislation has recently been introduced to require the Federal Reserve to develop a real-time payments system to compete with existing systems.
The Bond Conundrum And How To Manage
The past couple of weeks have been breathtaking for bond investors and observers of the bond market.
Cry For Argentina
Investors are clearly fearful of economic policies taking a left turn at a time when the economy is in recession: Growth declined 2.5% last year and 5.8% in the first quarter of 2019.
Markets During Apollo 11
Equity markets have reflected the country’s growth in population and technology. It’s been 20+ years since we have been at the level of bond yields that were existing at the time of the moon landing.
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