I have an MBA and over 25 years of experience in real estate development, stocks, bonds, finance, and forex markets. My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them using country ETFs and ...
more I have an MBA and over 25 years of experience in real estate development, stocks, bonds, finance, and forex markets. My investment approach is very simple. I find countries with the highest and strongest macro-fiscal flows and low levels of private debt and invest in them using country ETFs and contract for difference (CFDs). I use functional finance and sectoral flow analysis of the national accounts of the nations I invest in. This is after the work of Professors Wynne Godley, Micheal Hudson, Steve Keen, and William Mitchell. Roger Malcolm Mitchell, Warren Mosler, Robert P Balan, and many others. One can analyze a country in seconds with four numbers as a % of GDP and these are G P X C where:
G] Federal spending. [P] Non-Federal Spending. [X] Net Exports [C] Credit One can then derive a set of accounting identities that are correct by definition. GDP = G + P + X Aggregate Demand = G + P + X + C or GDP + Credit. GDP = GDI G and X are regularly reported in official national account statistics and one can work out P as follows: P = G + X Asset prices rise best where the macro-fiscal flows are strongest and where the private sector balance is highest. The 20-year land/credit cycle identified by Fred Harrison and Phillip Anderson is also a key investment framework that I take into account.
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Latest Comments
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Thanks Robert.
What The Fed Did Do At Its Last Meeting On April 30 - May 1, 2019
Hello,
The pre-meeting report is here: seekingalpha.com/.../4254418-fed-meeting-april-30-may-1-2019-impact-rate-rise
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Yes on holiday but back now.
Equity Counter-Trend Rally In Place; Yields Bottoming Out; DXY Resumes The Uptrend
Good one Robert.
Debt, Deficits, And False Stories
Right on the money.
Monetary Policy Takes Center Stage: MMT, QE Or Public Banks?
Hello Ellen,
Great to find you writing here. This is a quote that I regularly post in reply to scaremongering about the national debt.
"Under current institutional arrangements, governments around the world voluntarily issue debt into the private bond markets to MATCH $-for-$ their net spending flows in each period. A sovereign government within a fiat currency system does not have to issue any debt and could run continuous fiscal deficits (that is, forever) with a zero public debt."
(Source: Professor William Mitchell, 2014) http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29214
Issuing "debt" is totally and utterly not necessary.
If the Federal Government made two key changes there would be no need for treasury issuance and these are:
1. Change the law so that Federal deficit spending was not matched with treasury issuance.
2. Set a support rate on the Federal Fund Rate instead of a target rate so that the buying and selling of treasuries are not used to maintain the target rate.
The 'national debt' would roll off in a few months as treasuries were converted to dollars again. From savings account to checking account just like your savings at a commercial bank.
What It Would Have Meant If The Fed Had Raised In March
You can view more of my work here seekingalpha.com/.../alan-longbon#regular_articles
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
I agree with you and there are about 3 authors there that I follow and the rest I do not. I will be writing here more now that I have discovered it. Here my articles get a lot more page views that weeks at SA.
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
Thank you for reading and commenting. I disagree. It is an example of applied sectoral flow analysis where flows of income cause a change in the stock of assets. It uses national accounting to track the flows at the macro level, a thing that on one does nut that was discovered by Professor Wynne Godley and the Post Keynesian school of economics. It has been out of favour for the last 50 years or so as it runs counter to current neoliberal economic thinking. It is taught though at the Levy Institute Bard College.
Seasonal Trading Patterns For The World's Biggest Economies
seekingalpha.com/.../alan-longbon#regular_articles