Agreed Bruce Pile, the upturn is merely a bounce from the lows and does not signify anything major, especially the low volume it is being done at. Worse yet, it is driven on oil speculation and share buybacks both which will not last. There needs to be a material change in earnings growth or consumer income and spending to change the market direction. Even the Federal Reserve will have a hard time faking that like they do with their focus on jobless filings.

Good and fun article to read. One must know the history of technology to get a good grasp of it and realize the inventors aren't always the best managers or investment. Good tech laws and technology breed better and more technology. Those who can ride it well will benefit. Those who don't end up holding a lot of rotting shells.

Strangely negative rates, if more debt is not issued, will decrease money supply as a new tax without increased government spending does. Combine that with people hoarding cash in mattresses and you get the reason why negative rates don't work besides destroying investors earnings and being a mockery of capitalism.

Higher imports may mean higher inventories and not sales. The recent rise in stock prices is somewhat manipulated and as Bloomberg points out, the bull is being supported now only by TBTF banks and stock buybacks. It will be some time before the economy gets back on track meaning accelerating earnings growth not decelerating. The rest of the data is mainly noise.

www.bloomberg.com/.../there-s-only-one-buyer-keeping-the-s-p-500-s-bull-market-alive

Given there is a glut and tons more global supply ready to turn on I don't buy it. The whole problem is oil is welling up all over the world including even in India. This oil price rise will only encourage more production and is based on overly optimistic short term middle east cuts and a slightly softer dollar that will reverse if the Fed raises interest rates even 0.25%. That's how bad off oil is right now.

A new market high on what driver? A Fed driver needs to inject more QE or go back to zirp which would make people panic about US growth? Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is already pitifully low and slowing so there's no help there.

Sadly people are hoping the commodity drop is slowing, however, few realize in a downturn, when commodities no longer take the downside lead usually it moves to the service sector and the rest of the economy. Oil's bottom, if set, may not be pretty at all for the US market, although it will help Saudi Arabia and other heavy oil exporters.

How low can negative rates go? I suppose it ends when no one has any money to steal anymore.

Anyone watching volatility should realizes the run up is not all that great. It is just more volatility and price action as the market fumbles along the megaphone. The loss of leadership now that the Fed realizes it can't easily sugar the market any more will set in. A recent study indicates over 90% of the market's rise is due to Fed activity and nothing else meaning, we are really not that better than we were the last downturn. The market is once again primed for a big regression when the Federal Reserve runs out of steam.

finance.yahoo.com/.../...--analysis-194426366.html

I am 100% with the author on bond prices. The stock drop was a side show. The real signal is the drop off of bond prices and the hemorrhaging in junk bonds which is still not looking good. It just is not looking catastrophic yet. Stocks should follow bonds and the second shoe hasn't fallen yet, although, it just might.

In the meantime the Federal Reserve is about to its limits without QE that will make it obvious we are a programmed economy stuck in Japan style problems or negative interest rates proving we are hopelessly abandoning capitalism along with the rest of the socializing countries too inept to fix their government debt (Japan and most of Europe). Be careful out there. A recent study says over 90% of the market rise is all artificial Federal Reserve baloney. I tend to agree.

Great graphics. It's sad when I hear about how the public has tons of money they should invest in the stock market. Your graphic makes it clear if anything the general public is overinvested in the market not under weighted already. Sadly, lots of the investment is done through money eating mutual funds that underperform indexes.

The worst argument against the market is the recent study showing 90% of market appreciation is Fed driven which is not sustainable as it is non-capitalist. We have entered into the age of sheep driven not by capitalism but by a programmed economy not unlike communist and socialist countries. Beware. It simply doesn't work.

finance.yahoo.com/.../...--analysis-194426366.html