3hrs 30min almost after U.S. open update: oil recovered indeed, but copper gained no traction, big names such as TSLA unconvincing, high volume in declining HYG, LQD down, TLT falling in a straight line with volume taking on recent records = weak SPX less fresh downside below $1,773 in gold... risk-off winning

110min after the U.S. open update: Markets are attempting to turn the (intraday) corner - if it has any legs today, look for oil to lead the way, followed by copper with silver. stocks recapturing the 3,910 level would be a great start really, if you're into (liquidity) miracles. I like the lower knot in $TLT & indecision in $XLK - thus far, the key words here.

Technology holds the key to stocks - and keeps acting rather weak. Rising rates are starting to bite SPX and financials won't save it, and healthcare needs to catch its breath too. Value can't simply carry the full weight.

I was not persuaded by yesterday's gold price action, tweeted mightily - the first swallow of real, directional decoupling from TLT has to prove itself, and it's getting challenged. Amid mildly positive commodities and the dollar going not much anywhere, the gold jury is still a little out while silver and platinum can attempt another run.

It looks like gold can attempt a daily recovery from the low $1790s now that silver reversed. Copper is strong as well, and oil is running. And the dollar? +0.20% won't cut it - too weak a reaction to TLT. The bond market isn't convinced...

The recovery from pre-Powell tantrum in stocks, gold, and silver goes on - oil agrees and long-term Treasuries are getting a (daily) reprieve. This was just a stop run, not a trend change. No.

Graf Helmuth von Moltke said that no plan survives contact with the enemy. Very right, and we're moving back to pre-Powell trends slowly but surely.

Just a quick note - what I wrote yesterday about the market outlook and sentiment, remains valid also today - S&P 500 and precious metals.

Where are the gold bears? Yesterday, or now? The sentiment was so outrageous, and the price action positive for a quick reversal that we've witnessed yesterday. Precious metals are obviously not down and out, and scary targets don't really apply.

Meanwhile stocks continue in their shallow correction - no sign of a top really, no sign of a deep correction now, next week, month or whenever. When it's (about to) appear, you'll learn from me right away.

PMs UPDATE 2hrs before the closing bell: GDX:GLD at support. While GDX and GDXJ remain weak, SIL is demonstrating strength in sympathy with silver. GLD is showing relative daily strength vs. TLT. USDX going down, alleviating part of the pressure on gold. The very short-term outlook remains undecided while the intermediate- and long-term one is bullish.

What a great day! I hope you didn't give in the bearish sentiment in gold and silver, and paid attention to what I have been writing in the last days - check out especially Wed and Thu articles here. Good start for gold today - and silver just keeps running! If you took me up on the silver-gold spread trade idea introduced on Feb 12, you needn't be worried about even the yellow metal now...

As for the S&P 500, I nailed the stock market's shallow correction again - here we go with another open profitable trade in a row. Number 3 this year, without a single loser. Besides the credit market clues, did you notice the telling lower knots on the $SPX chart?

Or what about yet another dollar downswing, whose topping process on Feb 08 - just check my articles' library here for evidence!

Enjoy today's full analysis, and in advance - have a great weekend everyone!

This is a sequel to yesterday's very special analysis - please check it out if you haven't done so already. Today, I am taking aim at the Fed likely actions next given the late stage of the bond bull market. How long will the gold dislocation last? More on silver, stocks and the ever elusive repeat of a deflationary episode. Stocks and metals are now recovering from their intraday woes, and it's taking time. Stocks will have a smoother sailing than the metals. Look at TLT's currently making new 2021 lows, and compare to gold scoring modest gains today, leading silver. The bullish case isn't lost - and once it is, my readers evrywhere will be the first to know.

Let's comment on the up-to-date developments. The morning rebound in both gold and silver has given way to renewed selling, but are the bears, with USDX up 0.21 as we speak, having the upper hand really? Do any historical parallels compare to the unprecedented policy mix of 2020-2021? Gold is shaking off the rising Treasury yields pressure, slowly but still & miners internal dynamics tell the story of silver and platinum still leading the pack. A daily setback a la Feb 04 doesn't usher in a crash really. Let's stay objective!

I agree, and add that not only the demand will be moving higher, but the underinvestments in the sector (exploration, drilling, transportation) will come to exert upward price pressure. Nice performance vs. the other commodities as well, right? No overheating yet... I am also an oil bull, and will feature a black gold analysis soon too.