Why The Sky Is Not Falling In Precious Metals

Stocks are predictably staging a continued recovery from the mostly sideways correction – a shallow one not strong enough to break the bulls‘ back. Credit markets are largely behaving – with the exception of long-term Treasuries, which I see as highly likely to draw the Fed‘s attention – just as I discussed in detail yesterday.

The S&P 500 keeps doing fine, and so does my open position there – in the black again. On one hand, volatility remains low regardless of intraday attempts to rise, on the other hand, the put/call ratio has risen quite high yesterday – it‘s as if the traders are expecting a shoe to drop, similarly to the end of Jan. Will it, is there any on the horizon?

Treasuries at the long-end are falling like a stone, and those on the short end (3-months) are seeing higher prices in 2021. The bond market is clearly under pressure, and exerting influence primarily upon precious metals (and commodities such as oil, which are experiencing a down day today, after quite a string of foreseeable gains).

The bearish sentiment in gold and miners is running rampant, and it‘s been only yesterday when I answered a question on ominous head and shoulders patterns in the making, at my own site. This clearly illustrates the razor edge we‘re at in precious metals:

(…) This is more often than not the case with H&S patterns – they are not the most reliable ones, highly judgemental at times, and their targets are more often than not far away, which makes them a not fully reliable trading proposition when a long enough time (trade) series is taken. I rather look at what is driving individual moves – which asset classes influence it the most at a given time? Where to look for so as to get the most precise information? With gold and gold miners (they still trade quite tightly together), it’s the Treasury yields on the long end.

As I wrote in today’s (Feb 18) precious metals report, despite the new 2021 lows in TLT, gold isn’t amplifying the pressure – it’s trading well above the $1,770 level, and enjoys a stronger session today than silver. Look at the gold – TLT evolving relationship, as that’s the key determinant right now. The post-Nov dynamic speaks in gold’s favor – under the surface. Don’t underestimate the Fed either.

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Monica Kingsley 2 weeks ago Author's comment

PMs UPDATE 2hrs before the closing bell: GDX:GLD at support. While GDX and GDXJ remain weak, SIL is demonstrating strength in sympathy with silver. GLD is showing relative daily strength vs. TLT. USDX going down, alleviating part of the pressure on gold. The very short-term outlook remains undecided while the intermediate- and long-term one is bullish.

Monica Kingsley 2 weeks ago Author's comment

What a great day! I hope you didn't give in the bearish sentiment in gold and silver, and paid attention to what I have been writing in the last days - check out especially Wed and Thu articles here. Good start for gold today - and silver just keeps running! If you took me up on the silver-gold spread trade idea introduced on Feb 12, you needn't be worried about even the yellow metal now...

As for the S&P 500, I nailed the stock market's shallow correction again - here we go with another open profitable trade in a row. Number 3 this year, without a single loser. Besides the credit market clues, did you notice the telling lower knots on the $SPX chart?

Or what about yet another dollar downswing, whose topping process on Feb 08 - just check my articles' library here for evidence!

Enjoy today's full analysis, and in advance - have a great weekend everyone!