The momentary, intraday situation isn't rosy / convincing in the metals. GDX isn't markedly weak, but isn't outperforming either. I didn't like the run to $1,740 fizzling out - the upswing seems at a minimum pausing. TLT is the kingmaker of today's session. Not much can be gleaned from today's weak metals performance - as said, at least GDX isn't visibly lagging, but the upswing is seriously challenged nonetheless.

Stocks are meandering today amid non-disruptive outside #markets - smallcaps and emerging markets say so too. Weaker HYG isn't about to pull $SPX down, and talking downswings, I'm not looking for one to start in the metals, in spite of earlier selling into strength. The gold, silver and miners upswing is still unfolding.

Stock bulls are indeed still taking the deserved rest while gold is working to recapture $1,720 level amid stronger GDX. The rationale for the unfolding and heavily challenged precious metals rebound, is intact - especially given new lows in TLT. Will this sign in decoupling stick? Well worth my attention, which I'll gladly share with you, the people. Good weekend in advance!

SPX within sight of all time highs, and the tech didn't retreat an inch today. In the meantime, value stocks keep gently reaching hgiher, HYG got its act together - the bulls decided not to rest, and go for new highs in one day. More power and profits to the bulls!

Gold just can't keep above $1,730 today, and revisits the low $1,720s. Despite weakening USD and half of intradays TLT losses erased, the miners to gold ratio is running into headwinds again. Looking at silver and SIL, I am not writing off the unfolding rebound just yet, though.

Good evening everyone!!

Okay, no rest for stock market bulls as the 3,900 will be convincingly cleared today, in line with my opening sentence.

But gold bulls have a tad complicated their position with the retreat from premarket highs - they better refuse trading at the $1,720 volume profile zone that is still acting as a magnet, and surge higher if they are earnest. At least GDX is kind of behaving today so far - but no model of strength either.

Good day everyone!

If you had been following my daily writings, comments and updates, you know that now as we're clearing the 3,900+ zone, the outlook has turned more bullish - indeed, the correction has been in its closing stages. And the gold and silver upswing goes on...

It's about both price and time. Gold would appreciate strongly, and react with conviction to a spurt above 141 in TLT. That's still a realistic and quite conservative TLT target, which should ideally happen over the coming say 5 sessions. Commodities are though largely doing fine, so it might not be "required" for TLT to participate as strongly for gold to notice and move higher.

Did I get the purpose of your question right?

Update 2hrs into today's session:

Stocks keep knocking on my delineated 3,900 threshold amid inconclusive but improving credit markets with tech selling into strength are keeping the advance at bay - for now.

Even though signs of higher inflation are fundamentally positive for gold, it’s not yet enough to serve as an upswing catalyst - so, the yellow metal is ignoring the mildly positive CPI data, and GDX has been worryingly for the bulls probing lower values. TLT simply has to rise for GLD to run...

TLT finally rebounding today as well, taking pressure of the gold-TLT long-term chart I featured yesterday, check it out - how far will the discussed snapback rally carry the metals?

What if the bottom is in actually in? What if that was all there was to test in the key $1,670 zone? It's a thought worth entertaining while the PMs rally internals are fine. We're almost passing the $1,720 zone I look to see cleared first. Much more obviously needs to happen before I sound the bullish all clear.

Stocks, what about them? Strong tech open today, that's exactly what I had been trumpeting as a precondition - now, it's about clearing the 3,900+ zone with conviction...

Enjoy and profit on today's analysis!

OK, saving the comment here is probably the best. Contrary to what is said elsewhere, not only isn't the USDX on the verge of major rally, but will remain on the defensive throughout 2021, sinking below 2021 lows. Just as through one author's 2020 calls, the stock market top is still far away in my view - momentary internals aren't strongest, but we're not starting a dramatic SPX decline or Kondratieff winter now. We didn't have Roaring Twenties yet - last year and current doesn't cut it. Nominal rates are rising for all the good reasons - economic growth, and SPX will comfortably make new highs this year.