No More Rocking The Boat In Stocks But Gold?

Stocks sharply reversed intraday and closed just where they opened the prior Friday. That indicates quite some pressures, quite some searching for direction in this correction that isn‘t over just yet. Stocks have had a great run over the past 4 months, getting a bit ahead of themselves in some aspects such as valuations. Then, grappling with the rising long-term rates did strike.

So did inflation fears, especially when looking at commodities. Inflation expectations are rising, but not galloping yet. What to make of the rising rates then? They‘re up for all the good reasons – the economy is growing strongly after the Q4 corona restrictions (I actually expect not the conservative 5% Q1 GDP growth, but over 8% at least) while inflation expectations are lagging behind.

In other words, the reflation (of economic growth) is working and hasn‘t turned into inflation (rising or roughly stable inflation expectations while the economy‘s growth is slowing down). We‘re more than a few quarters from that – I fully expect really biting inflation (supported by overheating in the job market) to be an 2022-3 affair. As regards S&P 500 sectors, would you really expect financials and energy do as greatly as they do if the prospects were darkening?

So, I am looking for stocks to do rather well as they are absorbing the rising nominal rates. It‘s also about the pace of such move, which has been extraordinary, and left long-term Treasuries trading historically very extended compared to their 50-day moving averages. Thus, they‘re prone to a quick snapback rally over the next 1-2 weeks, which would help the S&P 500 regain even stronger footing. And even plain temporary stabilization of theirs would do the trick.

This is taking me directly to gold. We have good odds of long-term rates not pressuring the yellow metal as much as recently, and inflation expectations are also rising (not as well anchored to 2% as the Fed thinks/says). As I‘ll show you in the charts, the signs of decoupling have been already visible for some time, and now became more apparent. And that‘s far from the only suggestion of an upcoming gold upswing that I‘ll bring you today.

Just as I was calling out gold as overheated in Aug 2020 and prone to a real soft patch, some signs of internal strength in the precious metals sector were present this Feb already. And now as we have been testing for quite a few days the first support in my game plan, we‘re getting once again close to a bullish formation that I called precisely to a day, and had been banging the bearish gold drum for the following two days, anticipating the downside that followed. Now, that‘s what I call welcome flexibility, extending to accentuated, numerous portfolio calls.

And the permabears keep (losing capital through many bullish years in a row in some cases) calling for hundreds bucks more downside after a respite now, not even entertaining the thought that gold bottom might very well not be quarters ahead. It‘s easier to try falsely project own perma stickers onto others. Beware of wolves in ill-fitting sheep clothing. Look at full, proven track records, compare varying perspectives of yesteryear too, and wave off cheap halo effects.

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Monica Kingsley 1 month ago Author's comment

OK, saving the comment here is probably the best. Contrary to what is said elsewhere, not only isn't the USDX on the verge of major rally, but will remain on the defensive throughout 2021, sinking below 2021 lows. Just as through one author's 2020 calls, the stock market top is still far away in my view - momentary internals aren't strongest, but we're not starting a dramatic SPX decline or Kondratieff winter now. We didn't have Roaring Twenties yet - last year and current doesn't cut it. Nominal rates are rising for all the good reasons - economic growth, and SPX will comfortably make new highs this year.

Monica Kingsley 1 month ago Author's comment

$GDX is outperfoming $GLD as we speak, which is a bullish sign – we want to see miners show relative strength as a precondition of a rebound that could stick. Will it last, and when will we get one actually? Still an open question...

Monica Kingsley 1 month ago Author's comment

In the meantime, stocks are doing fine in the face of declining corporate bonds. Which one will give here?