Kurt Kallaus - Comments
President of Exec Spec LLC; Director at Sunnen
Contributor's Links: EXECSPEC

Kurt Kallaus is the author of Exec Spec and the KDelta trading model for stocks and all commodity futures. In the 1980’s, with a business degree and having worked in manufacturing, Kurt Kallaus engaged with a private Investment Partnership specializing in commodities and stock ... more

Latest Comments
COVID Is Messing With Texas And Investors
2 months ago

While the rise in infections among US hotspot States and Cities appear alarming and 17 States are halting or reversing their economic and social reopenings, States like Texas actually have fewer Covid fatalities per capita than Germany and all Western countries that are deemed to have been successful in fighting the pandemic. This perspective will not boost stocks as the short term is about Covid Case trends and eventually it will come back to being about death rate trends that guide politicians and consumer behavior and thus investors.

Best Job Gains Ever As Record Unemployment Was Expected
3 months ago

Yes, the main BLS report stating 13.3% Unemployment "could" have been closer to 16% due to imprecise gross miscalculation errors regarding absent workers they have yet to fully rectify. Likely further official upward revisions - common - of the 13.3% rate will be forthcoming. The final number is uncertain, but the far better than 19.8% consensus estimate still highlights a recall of absent workers in large part due to PPP loans. As the forgivable loans were received & the economy began to open, more workers were called back, especially in the critical Service sector.

In this article: SPX
Investors Appreciating The Dollar
3 months ago

Gary, nothing like responding a year after the fact - my apologies due to different forums carrying our publication.

As for Dollar: 1st I will note that the $ peaked near our 102 upside target zone outlined. The China Trade Deal (part 1 that may still fail) took far longer than we expected & while it was underway we felt the $ would remain strong as our economy decelerated into the ongoing global Recession where the US was the strongest performer warranting Dollar/capital inflows. It wasn't as much about trade as it was about the global economic cycle & China is less the issue on the $ than other 1st world trading partners & currency pairs.

What we were waiting for was a "bottom" in the Global slowdown by in late 2019 or early 2020 at the time, that was sadly punctuated by the pandemic in March 2020, which is where the $ peaked (briefly >103). From the late March low a Global recovery has begun, sending the $ lower, which is common in an exit from a Global Recession as global demand on commodities/trade priced in Dollars inflate with a more devalued $ that helps boost the recovery abroad relatively.

The Dollar has now fallen sharply from March & risks dropping under key support near 96 should commodities finally breakout of a multi-year doldrums. Oil & Copper are leading the way higher currently. If the Meats & food crops join the rally, it would be another sign for a recovery abroad gaining traction & lower $ temporarily.

Wall Street Cries Wolf On Stocks – Economy
3 years ago

Very true. 10 Year Yields are testing 9 month lows today. Stock buybacks remain at a high multi-year plateau and operating earnings of major US indices are hitting new records. Some speculative fever in equities, but far from running on fumes.

The formerly strong $ boosted Europe, now a 32 month low in the $ today aids US exports and continues to boost industrial commodities.

In this article: SPX
If Frac Sand Is So Hot—Why Are Sand Stocks So Cold?
3 years ago

Very good research & insight. A frustrating area for many investors I'm sure when looking at such strong financial improvement & prospects, yet sharply falling share prices.

It seems that as important as earnings & revenue are, that Oil prices still dominates pricing of these stocks. Would you agree that sand stocks will struggle until Oil returns to mid to upper 50's? In the case of SLCA, it has almost the exact same retracement as Oil prices (USO) of the rally from the 2016 low to 2017 high (almost 60%).

Also I wonder how much favorable comps for the next few quarters may prevent further heartache for investors - as long as Oil doesn't fall further?

In this article: FMSA, HCLP, EMES, SLCA
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