Kurt Kallaus | TalkMarkets | Page 1
President of Exec Spec LLC; Director at Sunnen
Contributor's Links: EXECSPEC
Kurt Kallaus is the author of Exec Spec and the KDelta trading model for stocks and all commodity futures. In the 1980’s, with a business degree and having worked in manufacturing, Kurt Kallaus engaged with a private Investment Partnership specializing in commodities and stock indexes. He ...more

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Stocks And Bonds Celebrate Weaker Economy
Another few months of decline in unfilled jobs at the current pace and the over-heated labor market will reach a cool equilibrium.
China’s Deflation Dilemma – Coming To The US?
US inflation and the related worker shortage have clearly been the top concerns for small businesses for the past 2 years. The US and global stimulus efforts created artificial demand far in excess of supply which caused these concerns to manifest.
Labor Market Cooling?
The record number of unfilled jobs in the US reached the boiling point in early 2022 with 12 million job openings along with broken supply chains that boosted headline inflation to 41-year highs of 9%.
Money Managers Embrace New Bull Market
Rising consumer confidence and falling inflation expectations have coincided with a rally in the general stock market.
Pre- Election Year Peak Coming This July?
Seasonality patterns have become more popular among market technicians this past year. After a strong April/May there is often a higher odd of sideways action in June. Not this time.
From Extreme Pessimism To Growing Optimism
When investors reach an extreme consensus of optimism or pessimism, we can be assured that the opposite is about to occur. The trick is knowing when those ever-changing thresholds of sentiment have climaxed.
Nvidia Hype Ushers In AI Gold Rush
This new stage of the AI revolution will generate intense competition as the AI marketplace grows from $200 billion today to an estimated $1.5 trillion by the end of the decade.
Consumers Block Bears From Earnings Recession
US Q2 GDP estimates are being revised higher to 3%+ as consumers are increasing their spending. This is bad news for inflation and interest rates, but good news in holding back the bears that are hoping for an earnings recession.
Hyper Government Spending Created Hyper Labor Demand
The new normal for non-inflationary labor demand is likely to stabilize in the 6.5 to 8 million job opening range.
Short-Term Pain Setting Up Long-Term Stock Market Gains
Last year, energy stocks were the darlings while mega-cap tech companies were crushed. This year, energy and small-cap equities have been dead weight while mega-cap technology stocks have regained their leadership.
Banks Panic While Big Tech Bulls Stampede Higher
Past norms fail to account for the degree of excess stimulus and long-term labor scarcity that has buffered this economic cycle. While sectors like banking head lower, full employment and tech trends keep the economy and equity markets edging higher.
Proxy War Of Economic Indicators
The Fed will win the fight against inflation, but the battle of proxy indicators forecasting economic gloom has just begun.
Market Expects Recession, Wants 4 Rate Cuts
A majority of CEO’s expect a recession starting in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of this year along with 74% of Credit Default Managers and even our own Federal Reserve has a recession this year as their base case.
Bears Banking On Credit Crunch
The Ghosts of the 2008 mortgage meltdown and Great Financial Crisis (GFC) are memories indelibly imprinted upon Central Bankers and provide a guide for future panic prevention.
Banking On An End To Rate Hikes
The banking scare in the US and Europe generated one of the sharpest 4-day declines in bond yields on record with the 10-year treasury falling almost eight-tenths of a percent.
Fed Funds Forecast And Stocks In The Twilight Zone
The supercharged jobs data over the past 2 months has reignited concern over sticky inflation and a higher cost of credit than is currently reflected in stock valuations.
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