It is truly unfortunate. The unseen and indirect deaths. We are fortunate that the world went into this with massive food stocks, but having food is not the same thing as being able to get it where it needs to go.
Remember, a *lot* of people died in this community. They had very little notion of how to treat it at the time (they are getting better). This was the hardest hit group in the country.
As I saw one person from the community say: "We had Kiddush (kind of a communal ritual get together that happens once a week or more), we said Kaddish (the prayer for the dead) and now we've moved on."
If you slowly infect people over an extended period of time, 6 months immunity isn't terribly useful.
*However*, if you expose everybody and continue to allow exposure then it could be extremely useful since re-exposure could easily extend immunity while limiting the ability of the virus to do much to those with partial immunity.
In other words, you'd have a walking 6 month immunity which would seriously dent the virus' ability to widely spread in the community again.
They didn't just "let" it run rampant. The call to shutdown was after Purim. It can be hard for modern Americans to imagine the concentration of people in these communities. But mass community events are the norm on a daily basis.
The following is a photo of a daily prayer service:
A fascinating article on actual herd immunity - if the virus is weakening or if we're getting better at treating it then this might be a more reasonable path...
Interestingly, in the US, by and large the places that didn't locked down hard didn't necessarily get hit hard. NY had 166 deaths/100,000. Michigan 62, Maryland 54. They locked down hard. By contrast, Georgia is at 27, Florida is at 17, Texas at 9 and Wyoming at 3. Source: www.statista.com/.../coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
The news has been waiting for mass death in these states for months but it still hasn't come.
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Coronavirus: Let's Move On
It is truly unfortunate. The unseen and indirect deaths. We are fortunate that the world went into this with massive food stocks, but having food is not the same thing as being able to get it where it needs to go.
The Cost Of Our Coronavirus Insanity
Thanks!
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
Remember, a *lot* of people died in this community. They had very little notion of how to treat it at the time (they are getting better). This was the hardest hit group in the country.
As I saw one person from the community say: "We had Kiddush (kind of a communal ritual get together that happens once a week or more), we said Kaddish (the prayer for the dead) and now we've moved on."
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
If you slowly infect people over an extended period of time, 6 months immunity isn't terribly useful.
*However*, if you expose everybody and continue to allow exposure then it could be extremely useful since re-exposure could easily extend immunity while limiting the ability of the virus to do much to those with partial immunity.
In other words, you'd have a walking 6 month immunity which would seriously dent the virus' ability to widely spread in the community again.
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
They don't seem to have done formal studies, but the informal suggest >55% previous infection.
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
They didn't just "let" it run rampant. The call to shutdown was after Purim. It can be hard for modern Americans to imagine the concentration of people in these communities. But mass community events are the norm on a daily basis.
The following is a photo of a daily prayer service:
boropark24.com/.../...020-03-08-at-6.21.23-pm.jpeg
This is the male side of a wedding:
www.israeltoday.co.il/.../F190912YL12-930x520.jpg
This is a Purim party:
jewinthecity.com/.../...18-03-07-at-3.55.38-PM.png
Then add in 10-15 people per 3 bedroom apartment.
Once something gets in, it gets everywhere in a hurry.
And, yes, it ought to be studied like nobody's business.
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
It isn't the city as a whole, it is just the ultra-Orthodox community in that city. And, yes, we ought to be studying the heck out of it.
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
A fascinating article on actual herd immunity - if the virus is weakening or if we're getting better at treating it then this might be a more reasonable path...
www.jpost.com/.../could-brooklyns-hasidic-jews-have-herd-immunity-634393
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
It my first analysis I tried to look at life-years lost. It reflects the impact of unemployment etc... on younger populations more appropriately.
Coronavirus: Let's Move On
Many fewer people died here, but I doubt the explanation is simply lockdowns. There seem to be significant genetic components, for example. East Asians seem to be less affected, Europeans more so. Source: www.jpost.com/.../coronavirus-genetic-risk-factor-inherited-from-neanderthals-new-study-634177
Interestingly, in the US, by and large the places that didn't locked down hard didn't necessarily get hit hard. NY had 166 deaths/100,000. Michigan 62, Maryland 54. They locked down hard. By contrast, Georgia is at 27, Florida is at 17, Texas at 9 and Wyoming at 3. Source: www.statista.com/.../coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
The news has been waiting for mass death in these states for months but it still hasn't come.
The WSJ has a great article showing this on a simple plot (si.wsj.net/.../...36_Rodger_16U_20200426130615.jpg)