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Economic and Financial Analysis
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FX Daily: Negatives Pile Up For Sterling
Hints that the Bank of England may be considering negative interest rates, and complacency about the Brexit transition period coming to an end this year, suggest the pound could be in for a sell-off.
Thailand: Recession Calls For More Rate Cuts
A 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Thailand looks to be a done deal at the meeting this week.
G10 FX Week Ahead: Bad Data Vs King Dollar
Bad data seems unable to dent the recent dollar strength, and DXY should remain above 100. Sterling, instead, may have another rough week.
Key Events In EMEA And Latam Next Week - Saturday, May 16
In Poland, we expect April retail sales to contract by nearly 20% year-on-year. We also expect the Central Bank of Turkey to reduce the policy rate (1-week repo rate) by 75 basis points to 8%.
Federal Reserve: Adding Company Debt To Its Portfolio
The Fed has taken another historic step; now adding corporate debt to its balance sheet.
Russia: RUB Stabilised On Portfolio Flows And FX Interventions
Russia's balance of payments for April suggests that FX interventions and portfolio inflows mitigated the negative effect of low oil prices.
Copper: ‘Phase One’ Rally Delivered
Copper seems to be struggling to extend further gains from here as it now stands at a crossroads.
Eurozone: 1Q Was All About The Domestic Lockdowns, 2Q Will Be Too
The second estimate of eurozone GDP confirms the historic decline of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter.
The Netherlands: A Relatively Mild Decline In GDP So Far
Dutch GDP fell by -1.7% QoQ in 1Q20, suggesting that the economic impact of the coronavirus was mild, at least in international comparison.
Asia Week Ahead: China’s Twin Sessions Dominate
A couple of central bank policy meetings and GDP releases will make the financial headlines next week. But China's annual National People’s Congress seems to be the key risk event for markets.
US: Jobless Claims Slow Crawl Lower
US initial jobless claims dropped for the sixth straight week, but remain painfully high at 2.98 million.
Japanese Investment Shows US Treasuries Are Getting More Attractive
Japanese investor flow data from the Bank of Japan highlights the growing attraction of USD assets.
Turkey: Sharp Drop In Industrial Production With Worse To Come
Industrial production contracted by 7.1% month-on-month in March following a relatively healthy performance in the first two months of 2020, as Covid-19 took a toll.
FX Daily: Waiting For New Catalysts, USD Remains King
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the central bank's opposition to negative interest rates but was still downbeat on the US economy.
Long Awaited US Oil Drawdowns
Looking at where oil markets settled yesterday, one wouldn’t have thought that the EIA reported the first drawdown in US crude oil inventories since mid-January.
Rates Spark: Taxing Patience
Sentiment remains shaky. There have been signs of spreads tightening when sentiment deteriorates but we think it is too early for Italy to fully benefit. Today's German tax update should boost borrowing expectations.
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