Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Minor Correction Underway In SPX
During the past week, IWM outpaced SPX and retained its current relative strength. According to my interpretation, this is bullish for the market, suggesting that only a minor top, at best, is being forecast by short-term indicators.
Bull Market Could Continue Through Q1 2021
Over the past few weeks, IWM has caught up with SPX by outperforming it. There were signs this week that it may be slowing down as we approach the next short-term projection. However, this does not mean that we are anywhere close to a major top. 
Short-Term Decision Time
SPX started a new intermediate uptrend which was followed by a period of consolidation that has now lasted several weeks. It can either continue its uptrend from here, or pull back before being ready for the next buy phase.
Next Market Low Not Till 2022
IWM continues to lead SPX in relative strength over the short-term, suggesting that although a short-term correction is underway, the index should see higher prices as the bull market uptrend continues to unfold. 
Uptrend In Process
SPX made in intermediate low on 10/30 and is resuming its uptrend. This move is expected to carry to about 4150 before the next intermediate correction takes place. 
Correction Curtailed By Election
Currently, IWM continues to lag SPX over the long-term time frame, but the former is outpacing SPX over the short-term. The long-term lag by IWM could be warning us of a major high over the next few weeks.
The Correction Continues
SPX is in a corrective pattern which should continue at least into mid-November. There is an outside possibility that it could drop as low as 3050 by then.
Is The Minor Correction Over?
Most minor cycles scheduled to make their lows in this time frame have probably done so, but SPX has not yet shown a clear sign of wanting to resume its uptrend.
More Short-Term Weakness Ahead
For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction. 
Short-Term Top Expected
For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-October correction. 
Counter-Trend Rally?
The relationship between SPX and leading indicators remained the same last week. This does not change the forecast for the market, which is that we are in a corrective mode after having made an all-time high in the benchmark indexes in September.
Short-Term Reversal
The relative strength between the three indices remains unchanged this week, with the TRAN exhibiting relative strength to the SPX while the IWM shows the opposite. This is congruent with the market’s position, which remains in a long-term uptrend.
Near-Term Objective Reached
SPX has reacted to two minor cycles making their lows a week apart, and has most likely ended its initial correction phase. After a rebound, it should be ready for another, possibly more severe phase of the correction.
Approaching Initial Objective
SPX is close to finding a low for this phase of the correction and this could happen as early as next week. It is not clear at this time if this will be a resumption of the uptrend, or if a more short-term downtrend lies ahead.
Correction Under Way
Last week’s decline can be attributed to a number of things: overbought market which had no significant correction or even consolidation over the last six hundred points, a structural pattern completion, or entering the weakest period of the year.
Short-Term Trend Lines In Focus
We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term. SPX has held steadily above its 60m chart trend line ever since it started its uptrend from 3350. DJIA and QQQ have held above similar trend lines, as well.
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