Minor Correction Underway In SPX

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again, and again, and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law... The same Nature which delights in periodical repetition in the sky is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth. Let us not underrate the value of that hint." ~ Mark Twain

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and which could continue into the first quarter of 2021 before coming to an end. 

SPX Intermediate trend:  New intermediate uptrend underway since 2234.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Minor Correction Underway

Cycles:  Looking ahead!  90-yr cycle – last low: 1932. Next low: 2022 

7-yr cycle – last low: 2016.  Next low: 2023

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts 

SPX-IWM weekly charts

During the past week, IWM outpaced SPX and  retained its current relative strength.  According to my interpretation, this is bullish for the market, suggesting that only a minor top, at best, is being forecast by short-term indicators (IWM, SPX).

SPX daily chart

For the past few weeks, SPX has been trading in an upward slanted channel which is identified on the chart by two heavy parallel trend lines.  Earlier this week, prices congested near the high of the channel, and by Friday, they had moved back toward the lower channel line before finding  some support and bouncing into the close.  This is a move similar to what took place four weeks ago with the difference being that then, prices recovered enough to move back to the top of the channel, whereby this time only a half channel recovery is expected, and this should be followed by a break of the lower channel line with the decline continuing to the bottom of the larger channel illustrated with parallel dashed lines.  Reaching that destination in another week to ten days should put an end to the minor correction and be followed by a resumption of the intermediate uptrend which started at 3234.

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