We’re roughly a month into Q3. Here’s a view, written a week ago:

…based on the indicators I track, yes, I think we are in continuing recession, and I expect a hard reset of the economy in H2.

Here’s what the Merten-Stock-Watson Weekly Economic Index shows, for data for the week ending on 6 August.

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Source: NY Fed via FRED, accessed 8/11/2022.

Some individuals have pointed to the rise in initial claims.

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Figure 1: Unemployment insurance initial claims, n.s.a. (blue), seasonally adjusted (tan), both on log scale. Source: US Employment and Training Administration via FRED, accessed 8/11/2022.

As noted in this post, the rise in initial claims seems to be a product of seasonal adjustment issues (the “shadow” from the 2020 recession) and misreporting in a couple of states. Initial claims then seem to be rising much less remarkably.

Source: Ronnie Walker, “Explaining Away the Recent Rise in Initial Jobless Claims,” Goldman Sachs, August 10, 2022.

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