The economy is slowing, it was bolstered by the fiscal stimulus and spending programs, plus the situation in the Yen Carry Trade is adding to the confusion. With the Yen strengthening it speaks to global stress, not just myopic views in the US that normally are focused on. Housing has held up primarily as supply isn't high (nobody with a paid-for or low-rate mortgage wants to move), and in my view up to now, we're not headed for Debacle as I looked for in 2007-'08.

Commercial property is another story, cash-on-cash returns are challenged, it is impossible to be optimistic on certain REIT's with current high yields. Rents for consumers in apartments (or small businesses in commercial space) are coming down generally, especially in the most absurdly unaffordable cities in California, New York and Florida.

Some REIT's or 'pools' tried peddling property based on cash-on-cash returns structured on high rent and high loan assumptions. That doesn't work now, as well as won't going forward, as prices for property -or to rent money- have peaked. There is basically a middle and lower-middle class revolt about rents, and sadly many renters aren't sophisticated enough to understand structures or creative financing that enabled the properties to be built or offered. Reality might infer defaults should occur for ludicrous property promoters, not renters, but that's another topic. It does imply REIT problems in 2023 likely persist.

In-sum: 

Little change today, brief comment. However it's about time to think in terms of upside that .. while tentative and jittery with all the hysteria around.. might just commence a year-end rally, though there's no assurance of that.

The majority of strategists and pundits continue saying a 'cash frenzy' likely starts off 2023. Perhaps, but I'm a bit more optimistic, although not sanguine about the near-term. Especially if the war escalates. But if it moderates and a different direction is taken, including Ukraine getting 'Iron Dome' systems the Israelis have held-back on providing (due to Russian Air Force over Syria), it could lead to the tail-end of the open conflict, rather than dragged-out war.

My bias was for a turnaround Tuesday and some modest upside. And that's what we got. On Wednesday it may be contested a bit more, but also dragged higher even while kicking and screaming.

I don't entirely disagree with some bearish sentiment regarding valuations, for some of the mega-cap stocks I have all along, generally before the crowd. As a for-instance, about 2 years of bearishness on Netflix, Tesla and Boeing as well as Disney, whereas I'm less bearish on the last two after the shakeouts.

As to Disney (DIS), they are likely to spin-off ABC and ESPN next year and that's a possible plus .. so we cease being negative on DIS, even while not enthused. Our negative view predates all of this, even the pandemic, because the Dollar strength killed favorable exchange ratios for key DisneyWorld tourist visitors, particularly from Great Britain and Brazil.

Boeing (BA) is doing better, and I was bearish while it got got in half, bearish on a sassy Tesla while competition got geared-up, even before all the concerns as relate to Elon or foreign markets. In that space I'm slightly bullish on Ford but not entirely pleased with their lineup, which General Motors beats, but share behavior remains negative for both. (Hence if playing, I'd use options, given a typical premium not too crazy compared to.. say.. our AEHR, which is a huge premium that favors the writers more than the buyers.)

Speaking of EV's, note that the media crows about less demand for EV's with most states nowhere near ready infrastructure wise. I'd said that all year long. Of course California is more prepared, but most people don't want to deal with the complexities of 'range anxiety'. (Charge car while taking Xanax.)

Finally tonight, might be the most interesting micro-cap development few will notice. Little speculative LightPath (LPTH), frustrating for years, is on a crusade that is intended to transform it, led by Sam Rubin, as we've discussed before. He's the CEO who started the 'new direction', that positions him as 'Moses leading shareholders to the Promised Land'. Or at least they hope to arrive there.

Today he reached up high for a little assist that I'm optimistic about. So in this case announcing that Scott Faris (who is about 6'5", hence reaching higher), will become Chairman of the Board. Scott has served as a LPTH Director for several years, but as Business Manager, in my opinion at the heart of a group that put together the Luminar IPO deal a bit ago, he knows structures well. In combination with CEO Rubin, I sense a great tech-team to move this forward.

To be more specific: it might be perfect timing given the several 'Navy license' exclusive deals likely forthcoming (or possibly involving one just announced). I had suspected Luminar as well as a customer of LightPath, but bigger paths to volume exist, perhaps Lockheed as I've mentioned (no disclosures and no specific knowledge, but I've heard the names, as relationships make sense in the military and space aspects... maybe add NASA or even SpaceX to that).

These are good steps LightPath's taking. I'd inferred thusly after visiting just two weeks ago as a good speculative hold. Let me elevate that a bit to a good speculative buy (shy of 1.20 if possible), with a goal of double or more over a few months. Just throwing a number out.. could be more or less. As for costs of developing, hard to say. Management seems to believe they're funded well enough for what they're working on now, should even do better having China cleaned up, and is solely doing military work in Orlando and Riga. Not China.

I don't want to get too excited about a tiny company, but like I said last week, it was evident they have plans for their new 'clean room' space being built out. And if they do dilute for the purposes of expansion, that might be alright, even though I'd prefer they fund it with advance payments which isn't impossible in the military realm. The idea is to cross a desert without financial dehydration.

Basically nobody covers the stock among significant firms, I do disdain penny stocks, recognize LPTH has always over-promised / under-delivered for many years, and that's why the management shakeup (bring in CEO Rubin). Now a Chairman with tech credentials and networking connections too, and that's in my view the best shot at really transforming the desert to a blossoming oasis.

No assurances, but at least it's 'not' a SPAC, has no 'PIPE' (hate those), and there are no options available and no sizeable shorts. Good, a clean entry. Of course it's a gamble, but now better than just speculation. Call it upgraded.

A bit more speculative upside tomorrow and then we'll see if it settles down. It is not impossible the year-end rally (if there's to be one) has a genesis now.