Market Briefing For Tuesday, Dec. 20

Volatile post-Expiration trading - hasn't resolved technically. Nevertheless, we continue to envision an intraweek rebound, although coming at a perfectly measured 'spot' of ~S&P 3800, it's a bit formulaic. (Rebound in downtrend so obvious it makes one wonder if we're headed toward a Christmas Eve low, of course after some sort of rebound effort is attempted probably on Tuesday.)

Sustainability sure is debatable. Year-end crosscurrents obviously contributed to Monday's action, and probably even for the rest of the week. Concerns for sure on Wall Street stem in-part to an area they won't explore: bolstering S&P prices over the preceding two years to multiples that were unrelated to reality.

The trajectory of growth was never as strong as some contended, outside of Oil & Gas for-instance. But were related to increased executive compensation empowered by buybacks, funded by low-coupon bonds in many cases, and of course preceding historical insider selling in many mega-caps as we outlined.

The reactions to the extreme pessimism on Wall Street is a tough headwind of course, and will remain tricky to navigate. Resurgent interest in Energy, in the 'innovative' (or disruptive like Silicon Carbide's transition in Semiconductors) aspects of tech, in 'defense', in healthcare and ... sustaining life (water) will be seriously important. And Germany is depleting it's expensive Natural Gas and storage supplies quickly, with Russia eager to exploit the situation further.

Ultimately more so than the anachronism of Russia's war, that really needs to get negotiated in some form. We can note how peace would temporarily press Oil, on which the U.S. Government now acknowledges about 8 billion profits .. direct result of Oil trading and something I've periodically alluded too .. or we'd point to drought and climate change, for which monetary policy does bare the ineffectiveness of monetary policy to 'make it rain'.

Agriculture prices are clearly very much related to distribution costs, but also to greater availability of water and conditions favorable for growing, and that's an increasingly global challenge to deal with. The war in Ukraine worsened it all, but also served to highlight the dependency of the world on limited areas.

In-sum: 

a completion of the bottoming process is more likely than bloodbath some on 'the Street' are calling for, although it's been a 'rolling' bear market of course for nearly 2 years, the first part under-cover of S&P strength as noted.

I suspect many money managers are really honing-in on Apple (AAPL), as they're all in it pretty much, and it's the big companies that are or can be struck, not so much the small-caps that have really been pummeled all year long. That's not to say Apple can't hold, or whether today's 'miraculous' sudden availability of iPhone 14 Pro's is somehow say production resumed successfully, but might be emblematic of what's really on their minds.

China is focusing on 'growth' of 'consumption' in comments over these last couple days, and that's being ignored by analysts as far as I know. Maybe it shouldn't be, since I believe so-called 'lower demand' was primarily due to the Chinese customers/buyers being throttled in a great way due to now-phasing-out COVID lock-down restrictions. I'm not saying Apple can't go lower, but I am curious if that's their fear since otherwise all the negativity is 'after the fact' for a majority of listed stocks, that have been declining overall for many months.

Russia/Belarus cooperation is more worrisome than Russia/China naval drills at the moment, and a Russian/U.S. clash would obviously upset everything.

I've described the mood as 'unanimity of negativity' among strategists and/or technicians. Perhaps it's not quite unanimous, but it's pretty heavy thinking in the wake of what, for everything but mega-caps, was already a heavy year.

The idea of interest rates staying 'higher for longer' inhibits growth, but doesn't make it rain, create innovative technology, or even dent the workforce, with all the major infrastructure programs that are spending and hiring irrespective of all the Fed's protestations. The Treasury itself might press the Fed to chill for the future, since 'debt service' (besides Social Security) will be a bigger drain.

So we can't say there won't be another leg down since we agreed with absurd multiple valuations and thought S&P ~4100 area would cap the last advance. I also thought a drop to ~3800 might be enough in a late-year range. I'm fully recognizing what is still a sketchy market with a Fed wanting to be 'sure' they wrung-out inflation, even though they have blinders on to some of the causes.

We don't know how much of a contraction could ensue, but again bifurcated in ways I've discussed, and this could prompt the Fed to 'back-off' prematurely in their view, whereas since they can't achieve what they want, it's arguable they should already stop the insanity before it becomes diametrically opposite to a long period of 'low rates for too long' which is what I argued over a year ago.

Meanwhile . . . limited corporate news, aside lots of chatter about whether we get Elon stepping-down as Twitter CEO, perhaps to focus more on Tesla (TSLA)? So that might actually be a 'plus' if Tesla focuses on deflecting new competition. I actually believe they waited too long to dissuade inroads by others, especially Ford and General Motors, with Mercedes being aggressive on the high end, and Canoo (GOEV) (if they can fund themselves so as to achieve goals) filling needed gaps in prices given that most EV's are pretty expensive for the mass market.

In the volatile Semiconductor arena, we favor expanding Silicon Carbide (SiC is the abbreviation) wafer manufacturing transition (from conventional silicon), and as that upgrade unfolds, the suppliers of specialized equipment benefit. It is the reason for our selection of AEHR Test Systems over a year ago (near 7 or so, with a double-up around 12), and target reached for this year but look for higher levels over time. Nearer-term possibly around 28-31 (28 resistance as the recent high). While AEHR has not identified lead-client #2 or #3 for the FOX XP system, almost all major fabrication companies are possibilities. Let's not that Infineon has reportedly inked deals to supply SiC chips to Stellantis, Hyundai, VW, and Tesla made on Coherent’s SiC wafers. (And for Tesla that would be supplementing chips we believe from both ON and ST Micro.)

 

 


More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, Dec. 19
Market Briefing For Thursday, Dec. 15
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Dec. 14

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