Close to 'ending' the Rising Rate Cycle - while still observe 'linear thinking' prevailing; at least when you sort through the various comments from current or former Fed officials, economists or analysts.

We can't leap far beyond speculation given the track-record of this Fed, but we can speculate on next week's influences. The CPI comes front-and-center.

The Fed doesn't want to respond too strong to a 'false dawn' (as Lockhard did term it Friday); but there is pressure on Banks, given they can re-enter danger zones; so I suspect the Fed is (unless really brain-dead) concerned about it.

Hence I believe the daily-basis key to next week is the CPI report; which 'ex food & energy' ought to be softer, and 'if so', would support the Fed not doing much (although we know they want to drain the 'balance sheet' further').

Even if the Fed, at their FOMC meeting later this month, doesn't hike (or if we do suffer one more nominal hike); the market might shrug that off and rally at least temporarily, thinking the Fed is out of the equation as near-term worries, regardless of a presumption of 'data-dependency' expressions reiterated in a statement that won't admit they'd 'done', even if they are finished with hikes.

In sum: the extrapolation of the somewhat conflicting ISM vs. Factory Orders reports resulted in two-way markets for awhile on Friday, while the basic data tends to show both layoffs and hiring in the same segments (I can't dissect it; so it leaves the reports in a mixed fashion the Fed can interpret as they wish).

First I want to thank several of you guys for feedback on my expanded Tweets and now less-robust presence on Threads (it's an incomplete product and my thinking is Zuck's crew rushed it out and will improve it over time..for instance you cannot edit a post; you can't send private DM's.. messages.. and it's only an App in the Google or Apple stores; not yet on a website. So it needs work.

Meanwhile ... Semiconductor analyst Kumar was on CNBC making a point that 'if' China really enforces a materials quota, that would not just be just an EV (component) issue; but the key material for RF chips in Cellphones. He said 'if' that happens, makers will be compelled to buy-up and pay for higher priced Silicon Carbide chips. I noted on a Tweet that I'm not sure I agree, since that wouldn't fit business models of most handset makers who want 'cheap RF'.

Bottom line: late week's action was a tough read for the market. Semi material and Oil stocks up, with Dollar weakness and lots of consumer stocks dropping into the Close; but some of that was just defensive pre-weekend 'squaring'.

No change in our macro view; which is overpriced generally extended larger caps; and limited time remain for an 'orthodox' seasonal rally completion. But you have the July FOMC meeting; and for that the CPI will be a big factor. 10 year bond over 4 percent causes uneasiness and volatility; and that persists.

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Market Briefing For Thursday, July 6
Market Briefing For Wednesday, July 5
Market Briefing For Monday, Jun 26