No metaphors necessary to describe this 'tension on the tape' struggle, as S&P tries to stabilize in the fairly-lengthy trading range that is ill-defined when one tries to correlate it to the broader market. In that regard many stocks have rebounded 'somewhat' during the anticipated Spring recovery; unimpressively.

That takes us to concern about 'banking' and commercial property challenges that likely arrive in the late Spring (and even beyond); although they're known by everyone at this point, which makes one ponder how much is discounted. I am thus not entirely convinced of this year becoming a typical 'sell in May and go away' phenomenon; though there will likely be some of that.

Even though we have studiously avoided joining the 'catastrophic bandwagon' of a majority of analysts and some technicians, we don't dispute some issues, of a basic nature (such as debt, difficulties really fighting inflation or so on). Its been the realization of the 'crowded short-side' of the ledger that deflected us, and suggested markets would not make it easy for the Armageddon crowd.

It's not been easy for the optimists either. But on the other hand pre-war eras historically have been something like this. And here I'm referring (hopefully it's not really a corollary) to the 1930's buildup militarily before entering WW 2. In fact there's a 'chance' that we might see a 'ceasefire' or better in Ukraine and even change of Kremlin leadership, which if it happened, would ignite a rally.

In-sum: the future is often hard to predict, because it's history's not yet written of course. The market has stalled for the moment, rather than pre-Expiration's rally I preferred. There's no argument about some sort of shakeout nearing. At the same time 'if' Expiration is down rather than up; we might rebound after, at risk of declining only after yet-another reprieve. Tread lightly.

Broadening breadth for weeks allowed resilience and rotation to dominate. Its our view that some sort of double-dip recession is within this; but a Fed pivot (primarily because of the bank concerns) gives an offset to recession worries.

People have been cautious about this market for months; we have for at least a couple years now; viewing S&P making an 'inverse head & shoulders' low in the final half of last year. That's part of why we question how heavily bears are able to 'pound' the list, since aside a few stocks, many remain suppressed, or already pre-crashed. Given the negativity out there, we think managers are in a mood to speak bearishly, while actually looking for 'bargains' to accumulate.

Economically we are weakening in revealing areas; 'auto' delinquencies alone tell you something about consumer stress. It's hard to pay-up for protection in this market, because you don't have a 'lay-up' scenario for a hard breakdown.

You may get a May decline; and you might break the U.S. Dollar a bit more. But if the Fed pauses it's tardy-then-faster hiking 'zeal' before other nations do it might actually shuffle up what so make expect to be Greenback weakness. Of course it has to be assumed that Congress will avoid a 'Debt crisis'. Surely the latest proposal of higher 'Ceilling' but with budget cuts, makes sense; thus it has no chance of being adopted in current from by this divided Congress. Its presumed that there will be compromise legislation; there simply has to be.

Given Thursday's behavior, Expiration Friday is newly complex. Might even be defensive at the end if there's worries of a U.S.-led interdiction to rescue staff at U.S. Embassy Khartoum. Oddly enough I have an old friend (not a cousin) who works at the United Nations, and harassed when he flew to Khartoum to deliver funds for food / famine relief. The corrupt military and politicians were horrible and ushered him right back on an Air France flight to Paris. He later told me that arriving back in New York and recovering at Equinox, was simply the 'best ever'; and yes I can imagine needing a good swim after that chaos.

He is so lucky to have been 'ordered' to leave. Aside that, yes my cousin in Paris in-charge of African Affairs was formerly UN Security Council, but isn't connected to the UN friend's adventure in Sudan as far as I know. Tense time.

Bottom-line: heaviness in S&P probably was led by Tesla plus Oil stocks; both an impediment to the Index holding together; but the Oil decline assists what's slow pace of disinflation. Consumer stresses are increasingly evident.

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Thursday, Apr. 20
Market Briefing For Monday, Apr. 17
Market Briefing For Friday, Apr. 14