Market Briefing For Friday, Apr. 14

A 'breadth thrust' for a few days adequately describes persistent traction coming out of a narrow S&P range; amidst a continued plethora of negative opinionating in the financial media; which remains the dominant viewpoint.

Again, that's the attraction of value versus pricey leaders, and while you can get another decline in 'pedestrian' or mega stocks; this retains characteristics we described of 'traction' ahead of next week's Expiration. The beat persists; and stocks will likely digest any disappointing Bank reports in the morning.

Yes there are headwinds; and Oil's rally definitely contributed to skepticism of how prices (inflation) can decline in the face of clearly-manipulated higher Oil prices. The Saudis did this with OPEC; possibly colluding with China's effort to prevent American and European economic growth; but demand's up too.

We'll get some reaction to big Bank earnings Friday morning; but the Dollar is more of a story than whatever we hear about moneycenter banks. There is a continuing undercurrent believing the USA did not help continued reliance on the Dollar by how readily it's slapped sanctions on here-or-there; as that's not entirely limited to Russians resulting from the horrid actions against Ukraine.

However for now I see the Dollar continuing to fluctuate, typically alternating with the S&P moves, although there will be periodic stories probably intended to destabilize the currency or reduce confidence, as Brazil's Lula's traveling to China likely bringing Xi's desire to push trade into Chinese currency noted.

Oh, as to the Boeing (BA) issue late today; it's a component issue so will have at least a temporary negative impact on the Senior Indexes. Again, the 737 Max; but it's a non-conforming parts issue, related to the vertical stabilizer joining the fuselage as best I understood the initial story. They said 'not critical' for all the existing aircraft, but I wonder. Any non-conforming part means it doesn't fit. In fact it's from Spirit Aircraft (not airlines), SPR, which is the old Wichita Boeing plant I was familiar with in my youth (B47's; B52's; then 737 & 787 fuselages). Both stocks are down and both will probably snap-back after a washout.

Bottom line: leadership is constrained; and that's part of the argument Bears make for the market to drop. They're wrong in a sense: breadth expanded lots concurrently, which means managers are focusing on 'value', not overpriced mega-cap stocks.

There are continuing 'headwinds' including tightening credit standards and a 'credit crunch'; but this isn't particularly news, and we have an Expiration next week, which I've suspected can contribute to covering or even short-squeeze activity, which for that matter we may already seeing that hold stocks together.

Friday morning however will be dominated by Bank earnings that come out. It could be a bit rough; recognizing Fed reversed to 'balance sheet' expansion in light of the 'regional banking crisis' not long ago; so things could be a bit testy.

But generally a broad variety of stocks should work higher even next week. Of course this move is 'long in the tooth' but crowded shorts & bears help upside.


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