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The consumer price index (CPI) increased +0.3% in November, the highest monthly increase in the last 6 months. Although it was right in line with what the street was already expecting.

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Prices are up +2.7% over the last 12 months, up from the +2.6% pace of price increases for the 12 months ending in October. The index is now +22% above its pre-COVID highs.

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Core inflation (CPI minus food & energy) also increased +0.3% in November, and in line with street expectations.

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Core prices are up +3.3% over the last 12 months; stuck at the +3.3% pace for the last 4 months. And still well above the Fed’s 2% level.

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Breaking down the CPI by category, shows the price increases were pretty broad based in November. Energy prices stopped declining, which is why the headline CPI number heated up this month. Used cars & trucks were the category with the biggest price increase for the month.

Shelter prices increased by +0.3% in November, which is roughly 40% of the consumer price index. Shelter prices operate on a lag, and we have some evidence that relief may be on its way. But we continue to wait for it to finally kick in.

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On an annual basis, energy prices are down, along with used cars & trucks (even with the sharp monthly decline). Services (ISM services prices show no signs of slowing down), shelter (again, about 40% weighting in the price index) and transportation services, continue to push overall inflation higher.

To summarize, inflation remains stubbornly high as core prices fail to slow down for the 4th straight month. As I type this, the S&P 500 is higher by +0.70% today and interest rates are only up slightly. I assume this is a sigh of relief, since even though the numbers were worse than the prior months, it wasn’t worse than what the market was already anticipating. The Fed is expected to cut rates another 25 basis points next week. I don’t think they have room to do much more, until more progress is made. But they badly botched this, by waiting too long to raise rates. So should we really be surprised if they cut rates too soon?

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