Here are several nowcasts of 2023Q1 GDP, placed against the January WSJ mean forecast and IMF WEO projection of 31 January.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (red square), IHS Markit/S&P Global (tan triangle), Goldman Sachs (light green line), WSJ January survey mean forecast (green line), IMF WEO projection (sky blue triangles). Source: BEA 2022Q4 advance, Atlanta Fed, IHS-Markit/S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, WSJ January survey, IMF WEO update, and author’s calculations.

These estimates now incorporate the latest available trade data (i.e., for December).

Interestingly there’s quite a dispersion in nowcasts/tracking estimates for Q1 growth, ranging between 0.8% SAAR (GS) and 3.1% (IHS Markit), with GDPNow at 2.1%. IHS Markit baseline is for a mild recession starting at Q1 and recovery at Q3 (so I’d guess they’re saying peak at Q1, trough at Q3). Deutsche Bank baseline is for mild recession in 2023H2, arguing that strong employment growth argues against imminent recession. Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs yesterday indicated a recession probability of 25% (versus consensus around 65%) in the next 12 months.

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