A 'commercial apocalypse'  is being revived as a financial concern to worry about. That's not new and has been ongoing since the pandemic; while there are worse outliers (such as expensive San Francisco or Miami, where people are paying more to live in the proximity of squalor and pathetic situations).

Of course we are closer to the end of the rate hike sequence (likely there now for that matter); and we don't foresee a National Disaster in property triggering a debacle which followed the 'real' destruction of much of Wall Street on 9-11. I lost 4 in the WTC that day; while the Captain of AA 77 that hit the Pentagon that fateful day, had bought my house of many prior years in Ft. Lauderdale. It was a 'Day of Infamy' and to this day I'll never forget nor forgive the Saudi's, who unofficially funded virtually the Islamic terror attack on the United States.

I'm not trying to correlate the property concerns with a National tragedy; while the word 'apocalypse' brought that to mind. Some call this current situation a 'doom loop', and in a sense that I do correlate, as the Federal Reserve, with their unwitting monetary policy created a lock-down in property (nobody wants to sell any commercial or residential property financed at prior lower rates). It means that the Fed inadvertently restricts supply and prolongs the suffering.

If the Fed 'grasps' that, it might be a reason for them to 'chill their zeal'. Sure you'll hear all about diminished inflation and all that; when the reality would be a Fed more concerned or fearful about a range of defaults and delinquencies.

Yes I've expressed this prospect even before the Fed started hiking; believing the Fed would create the very inflation they don't want; by upending structures that the economy had adjusted to (and yes for too long as well). What they've done is called 'shelter inflation', and they had to hike, but wrong solution now, by keeping it for too long as justification for stupidity... I mean hawkishness.

Now, higher wages are not moderating, despite Walmart pretending that's so. You've had Ford already give raises to thousands; GM & Stellantis pending and all this is inflation that the Fed can't 'claw back' easily; hence the Fed just continues breaking eggs, and fail to understand that policy needs to be leaner (sort of an egg-white omelette, and they can keep the yoke .. humor effort).

The U.S. Dollar has been the strong point of the week (at least I got a slightly favorable Euro exchange rate ahead of my trip if Hurricane Lee doesn't force a change in routing); and commonly is seen while the S&P backtracks. There is such negativity abounding ahead of the upcoming CPI and FOMC, that it's capable of mounting rebounds or at least stabilization efforts, such as seen.

'Market X-Ray' - assesses an S&P that remains bracketed, in a narrow range around the 50-Day Moving Average, with broadly-bifurcated effort elsewhere.

Next week will be interesting around this big-cap pivot area; while aside CPI & FOMC, the week ends with the first of the Jewish holidays; Rosh Hashanah. I have been faithful and thankful enough these past couple years, and will be on a Med cruise between the holidays (and provide brief comments as well). I will toast all celebrating with some fine wines; might even visit a Bodega :).

The prospects of a UAW strike and inflationary implications are important. If we get through CPI without another big shakeout (it could be softer if they're pretending to downgrade the influence of Food & Fuel); then ranging persists.

This was also an active week for Oil, with Brent topping 90 for the first time in 2023, and WTI followed-along. Plus WTI has risk of exceeding that level 'if' a hurricane moves into the Central or Western Gulf of Mexico during hurricane season, which actually is peaking now or soon; perhaps lingering later than usual, as a result of the warmer waters, stable Bermuda High (which points a lot of storms a bit West), and extremely high Gulf & Caribbean water temps.

So any such storm that compels evacuation of the Oil platforms (they're both often drilling 'and' production facilities) and/or onshore refineries will quickly push Oil into the 90's or 100 / bbl area; and that impacts consumer spending in a negative way. At least residential rents have peaked and easing a bit but not much. Mostly everything is a slower 'pace' of inflation; not real disinflation.

Bottom line: with CPI, FOMC and even typically calm behavior between the religious holidays, there's not much expectation for market drama beyond the first two, which should be the most sensitive to S&P shuffling next week. Sure we do have the Apple launch 'event', but that's not really a macro concern.

The 'urban doom-loop' is real and has been. Here and a variation in China; not to mention Canada. For a lot of big cities this contributes to evacuation by residents, besides crime or so on, as cities can't dope with lower tax revenue. This remains both an indirect and direct concern if/as things falter faster.

I will be able to monitor the Apple Event, and everything until Thursday; then my comments will be very limited depending on availability and connectivity in the ensuing 10 days or so.  If there's an opportunity for market drama it might be 'sooner'.

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Friday, Sep. 8
Market Briefing For Thursday, Sept. 7
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Sept. 6