Rollover risk cannot be overestimated in this mega-cap roller-coaster era of bifurcated markets (with tremendous numbers of under-performing stocks vs. a handful of big-cap leaders). Of course the question is 'much to do about so little' regarding Apple and China; or whether it really is 'checkmate' by Beijing.

Apple is a key stock in every Index it's a component in. Over 70% of Nasdaq are poor performers; so Apple and a few others (as noted last night) dominate the freneticism more than others, given market-caps exceed others combined. My suspicion is China's making 'perceived pressures' for grander goal; being to hold manufacturing jobs in China; but they're do it as the 'bully' they are.

Checkmate or not by China; while I wouldn't buy Apple for more than trading bounces, I suspect stocks shaken by today will bounce. I'm not chasing any of the pricey ones, as holding core positions from long ago is another story. For now at least, I lean toward thinking China is playing poker, even chess, to make a point 'to' Apple and by extension the USA, not so much just to deny iPhone use in offices.

Not to be overlooked, Apple gets about 11% of total revenues from China; so it is relevant and more so than just 'iPhones being permitted in certain offices'. Multiples expanding while revenue growth declines is not a good set-up; and I have felt Apple would fill the gap above the market and then head lower. So it isn't surprising, and it is September; with us on-guard for a shakeout anyway. I have no problem with Apple growing later on (especially with 'conversational AI' which they're pouring money into quietly); while not exciting just now; but it is capable of firming into the approaching new Launch Event next week.

Foxconn is the biggest employer in China, so Beijing's bark may be worse vs. their bite, but you never know for sure with the 'Commie Capitalists' as I call them. As I said, if Apple filled the gap to 188-190 (it did the other day); to then drop 20 points, I might be inclined favorably towards it as a trading buy; very likely coincident with next week's launch 'even' for the iPhone 15. But rallies in Apple or any stock right now (generally with exceptions) should be temporary.

Basically I do not see the particular attraction of investing in Apple at high levels of the current era (decline or not); unless they make a big move into AI, which eventually I expect them to do. Siri etc. is 'sort of AI', but it's more command in nature not 'generative AI'. And it is huge last-generation code. I'd prefer Apple to create (or embrace) a 'standalone AI' 'app or platform' to work with Siri.

Market X-Ray - Continuing to believe in being underweight mega-caps from a broad perspective; and overweight small speculative stocks with prospects of being successful next year; accumulating gradually with significant patience.

Nothing much is likely to change for now. Interest rates are unlikely to become more of a headwind, although the chatter will be (such as from Jim Bullard of the St. Louis Fed yet again). They are naive talkingut abo higher rates; failing to see how they are contributing 'to' the inflation by their efforts, and ignoring to a large degree the impact of Oil prices on real world inflation beyond fuel. I believe they are overly-impressed with their own influences; with dispersion of impacts on policy including Saudi Arabia, which has more effect on inflation.

Also the Fed can't control the weather. (Whether their hubris extends into the clouds I can't say.) Anyway it won't be Hurricane Lee (likely to turn North); but if a future one this month entered the Gulf of Mexico and triggered evacuations of Oil platforms, that could thrust WTI to 100/bbl. That's the real risk and clear suppressant of 'discretionary spending' by American average consumers.

Nasdaq is where all the volatility is these days, and I don't think declines for the mega-caps will be scooped-up in short order as some think; but over say a month or so, yes, probably that commences, presuming no existential event which historically do sometimes occur when things look unfavorable; so then they worsen temporarily (and that leads to a more optimal buying range).

Bottom-line: impossibly to say that we get sharp drops followed by some sort of 'face-ripping' rally; but I do suspect general profits troughed already; and it's not impossible for 'softish landing' biases to prevail with regard to 2024.

Hard to 'play' this market; people typically suggest playing Energy Stocks for these trends; but they've already moved. Others avoid Semiconductors due to China; but that's likely an interim impact that makes some of those buys again (as well as equipment manufacturers with a primarily domestic-centric focus).

More battle tomorrow; from just under the 50-DMA. Too many shorts after the Apple story; so just maybe we eek out one more bounce; although it's Friday.

P.S. Finally tonight you should know that a CNN report saying Starlink 'birds' over the Black See (Crimea and Ukraine) were ordered activated and then got turned off by Elon Musk personally is blatantly incorrect.

Musk is claiming that Starlink satellites were not active over the contentious or conflict zone, where supposedly Ukraine wanted to attack the Russian Fleet. I have heard that Elon personally did not order anything (activation or opposite) at the behest of any government. Starlink in the area is inactive as of 2 hours ago, and that's per Elon Musk. Presumably. Can't speak to a few hours hence though; as pretty much nobody wants escalation of the war; but knows Russia merits counterattacks after what they continue doing to civilians (as targets).

Prior highlights follow: