Existing home sales are not that important for forecasting purposes, since they have much less economic impact than new home sales, because the main effect is simply a change in ownership. But there has been an ongoing shortage of housing for over a decade, which was only exacerbated by the pandemic. So I mainly look at this data for evidence of a rebalancing of the market.

And in March there was further evidence of that rebalancing.

Like new home sales, existing home sales have been rangebound for the past 2 years, in reaction to mortgage rates remaining in the 6%-7% range. In February they were near the top of that range at 4.26 million annualized. In March they retreated towards the bottom of that range, at 4.07 million, so the rangebound trend continued:

But as indicated above, the main issue has been a chronic lack of inventory. As shown in the graph below, this trend has been going on for at least 10 years, well predating the pandemic. Unlike sales, this series is not seasonally adjusted, so it must be looked at YoY. In March inventory continued its slow climb from its 2022 Covid lows, at 1.330 million units, a 19.8% increase, and the highest March reading since 2020:

Nevertheless inventory remains well below its pre-2014 levels (not shown), which typically were in the 1.7 million to 1.9 million range, which means that the shortage still exists.

This shortage is still creating upward pricing pressure, but that pressure is abating somewhat. Like prices, this data is not seasonally adjusted and so must be looked at YoY. Here is what the last 10 years look like:

In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic in 2021-22, prices increased as much as 15% or more YoY. After the Fed started its sharp hiking regimen, prices briefly turned negative YoY in early 2023, with a YoY low of -3.0% in May of that year. Thereafter comparisons accelerated almost relentlessly to a YoY peak of 5.8% in May of 2024, before decelerating to 2.9% in September.

Here are the comparisons since:

October 4.0%

November 4.7%

December 6.0%

January 4.8%

February 3.6%

In March this deceleration continued, with a YoY% gain of 2.7%, the lowest such gain since September 2023.

This is good news, but as indicated above pricing pressures will remain until the shortage of inventory is resolved.

The bottom line is that existing home sales continued the slow rebalancing of the housing market. Next week we will see if the repeat sales indexes buttress this evidence.

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