Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Household Debt And The Pandemic
The Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly update tracking the issue of how stretched were American households in paying their monthly bills.
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Two Leading Sectors Of The Economy - Manufacturing And Housing - Turn Even Hotter
Both construction spending and ISM manufacturing data are at levels not seen in years.
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January Personal Income And Spending Show How Important Government Stimulus Has Been To Keeping The Economy Afloat
This morning’s report on January's personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustain the economy.
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Initial Jobless Claims: It Appears That The Worst Of The Winter 2020-21 Increase Is Behind Us
This week, on an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 131,734 to 710,313. Seasonally adjusted claims decreased by 111,000 to 730,000.
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New Home Sales Rise M/M, But Signal Caution For Housing Market Going Forward
New home sales increased to a three-month annualized high of 923,000 in January. This is of a piece with the positive news last week on housing permits.
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You’re Reading The Right Blog: 2021 Economy Edition
Yesterday morning, January’s index of leading indicators came in at plus 0.3%, the 9th positive reading in a row
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
FTXR First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
IYT iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TBT ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF
TLT iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
TMV Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares
XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Calm Before The Category 5 Constitutional Hurricane?
All three time frames remain very positive, as they have been for the past month or better. But for the first time, political risk must be mentioned as a factor in the near-term picture.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Rebounding Metrics Confront Rebounding Virus
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Housing Market Returns To Life
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: First Likely Impact Of Coronavirus Fears, While Financial Measures Look For A Bottom
Stocks, bonds, and commodities all appeared to grope for a deflationary bottom this past week. Meanwhile, the only "hard" data that likely showed coronavirus impact as a significant further deterioration in intermodal rail shipments.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Nowcast Falls To Neutral, Still Buoyed By Consumer Spending
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Volatile Short-Term Forecast Rebounds
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Republics And The War-Making Power
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.

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