Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more


Positive Housing, Initial Claims, And Philly Fed Outweigh Negative Industrial Production
Overall housing starts and permits declined, single family permits, the most forward looking and least volatile of the metrics, were only 3000 off a new expansion high.
Real Retail Sales Decline Slightly In September, But The Consumer Is Still Alright
Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer-term forecast for the economy.
Initial Claims Still Positive, Negative Near-Term Recession
Initial claims continue to be very close to their expansion lows. The 4 week moving average of claims Is 213,500, only 12,500, or 6.1%.
August JOLTS Report: Nearly All Employment Measures Now Neutral
This morning’s JOLTS report for August showed a decline in all metrics m/m as well as a slowing trend overall.
Scenes From The September Jobs Report
Let’s look at the bad news, which comes from examining the leading indicators for employment.
Have We Finally Reached "Full Employment"?
Gains in employment as measured by the household survey, as opposed to the larger payrolls survey, were 590,000 and 391,000 in the last two months, respectively.


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Latest Posts
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Dovish Fed Adds To Positive Long-Term Forecast
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Short-Term Forecast Returns To Negative
With the continuing slide in long-term interest rates, the long term forecast has turned even more positive. But the short-term forecast has returned to negative from neutral.
Weekly Indicators For June 10 - 14
The divergence between the near term vs. longer term forecast is increasing, and the risk that the forecast is too optimistic is asymmetrical, because Trump’s chaotic tariff behavior cannot improve the situation, but can definitely cause harm.
Nailed It!
Three weeks ago I wrote No, the Meuller report ***DID NOT*** “find no collusion!”
Weekly Indicators For March 11 - 15 Are Up
The rebound after the government shutdown has lifted the nowcast into slightly positive territory. Still, it seems clear at this point that the shutdown caused the already-weakening economy to skirt with recession during December and January.
More Evidence For A Q4 “Recession Watch”
About a month ago, based on those Q4 2018 reports that had not been delayed by the government shutdown, plus workarounds for those that were missing, I went of “Recession Watch” for Q4 of this year.
Weekly Indicators For February 11 - 15
There was some widespread deterioration among both the short leading and coincident weekly data, as well as the monthly data.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: More Contrary Movement In Long And Short Leading Indicators
The short term and long term forecasts continued to diverge ever so slightly.

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