Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more


100 Years Of Industrial Production
Last Friday, it has been exactly 100 years since the first publication of industrial production by the Fed in January 1919. So this is a good time to take a sweeping historical look at production in the United States.
Wages Continued To Improve Through January
So average workers are finally making some real headway.
Industrial Production Face-Plants, But Hold The Dooom For Now
For the second day in a row, a major piece of economic data face-planted. Industrial production for the month of January declined -0.6%. Worse, almost all of the decline was in manufacturing.
More Signs Of A Slowdown: Initial Claims And Real Retail Sales
This morning we got two negative data points. One is cause for concern, the other - not quite yet.
A Decelerating Staffing Index Suggests That Weakening Temporary Jobs In The Monthly Employment Report Is Not Just Noise
Every week I report the YoY 4 week rolling average of American Staffing Association’s Index. It’s been decelerating recently, and last week was up only +0.5% YoY. On a single week basis, though, it went negative.
February Short Leading Data Starts Out Decent
Motor vehicle sales tend to have long plateaus during expansions, before turning down in the 6 to 12 months before a recession.


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TBT ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF
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Latest Posts
Weekly Indicators For February 11 - 15
There was some widespread deterioration among both the short leading and coincident weekly data, as well as the monthly data.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: More Contrary Movement In Long And Short Leading Indicators
The short term and long term forecasts continued to diverge ever so slightly.

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