Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ...more

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House Prices May Have Bottomed, While YoY Price Increases Have Declined To Lower Than Their 25 Year Average
Seasonally adjusted house prices through March as measured by both the FHFA and Case Shiller Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the latter by 0.2%.
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April Real Personal Income And Spending Report
April report for real personal income and spending adds to the evidence that a cyclical peak might ultimately be dated to January.
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Initial Claims: Revisions Rear Their Ugly Head Again
Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report.
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New Home Sales And Prices
Yet another confirmation of a bottom in sales, while prices continue to decline YoY.
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Housing Update: Sales Have Bottomed, Prices In Process
Existing home sales yesterday remained above their January bottom by a substantial margin.
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Jobless Claims: Yellow Caution Flag Persists
Claims fell back to their previous average range, at 242,000.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
FTXR First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
IYT iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TBT ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF
TLT iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
TMV Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares
XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Calm Before The Category 5 Constitutional Hurricane?
All three time frames remain very positive, as they have been for the past month or better. But for the first time, political risk must be mentioned as a factor in the near-term picture.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Rebounding Metrics Confront Rebounding Virus
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Housing Market Returns To Life
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: First Likely Impact Of Coronavirus Fears, While Financial Measures Look For A Bottom
Stocks, bonds, and commodities all appeared to grope for a deflationary bottom this past week. Meanwhile, the only "hard" data that likely showed coronavirus impact as a significant further deterioration in intermodal rail shipments.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Nowcast Falls To Neutral, Still Buoyed By Consumer Spending
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Volatile Short-Term Forecast Rebounds
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Republics And The War-Making Power
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.

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