Friday, February 14, 2020 10:45 AM EST
Retail sales increased nominally by +0.3% in January, while December was revised downward by -0.1%, for a net gain of +0.2%.
Economy Writer
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The Bonddad Blog
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more
As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.
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Have We Reached “Full Employment”? An Update
Thursday, February 13, 2020 10:49 AM EST
As an initial matter, this morning’s initial and continuing jobless claims report were positive as to all metrics by which I judge them. They are near the bottom of their recent ranges and/or are lower YoY (lower being good).
December JOLTS Report Continues The Trend Of Confusing Jobs Data
Tuesday, February 11, 2020 12:14 PM EST
The JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however, it only covers one full business cycle, so is of limited forecasting use.
Why I Expect Further Declines In Manufacturing Jobs
Tuesday, February 11, 2020 2:04 AM EST
The manufacturing workweek had been declining significantly, and it has a reliable 80+ year history of leading manufacturing jobs.
January Jobs Report: Why I Am Discounting The Headline Strong Jobs Number
Friday, February 7, 2020 10:04 AM EST
This report was very mixed. The headline jobs gain in the establishment survey masked continued declines in several leading components.
Jobless Claims Continue To Show A Healthy Economy
Thursday, February 6, 2020 10:47 AM EST
The weekly number was 202,000, close to its 50-year lows last year.
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| FTXR | First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF |
| IYR | iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund |
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| TBT | ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF |
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| XTN | SPDR S&P Transportation ETF |
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I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.
Sen Orrin S. Ferry (R-Conn), in the course of offering a joint resolution to lift the disabilities mandated by the 3rd Section of the Fourteenth Amendment against those who participated in the rebellion:
Recession risk is receding as the weak manufacturing sector is simply not enough to overcome the solid consumer sector.
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
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