Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Real Retail Sales Continue Flat In January; Production Sector Still In Recession
Retail sales increased nominally by +0.3% in January, while December was revised downward by -0.1%, for a net gain of +0.2%.
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Have We Reached “Full Employment”? An Update
As an initial matter, this morning’s initial and continuing jobless claims report were positive as to all metrics by which I judge them. They are near the bottom of their recent ranges and/or are lower YoY (lower being good).
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December JOLTS Report Continues The Trend Of Confusing Jobs Data
The JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however, it only covers one full business cycle, so is of limited forecasting use.
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Why I Expect Further Declines In Manufacturing Jobs
The manufacturing workweek had been declining significantly, and it has a reliable 80+ year history of leading manufacturing jobs.
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January Jobs Report: Why I Am Discounting The Headline Strong Jobs Number
This report was very mixed. The headline jobs gain in the establishment survey masked continued declines in several leading components.
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Jobless Claims Continue To Show A Healthy Economy
The weekly number was 202,000, close to its 50-year lows last year.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
FTXR First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
IYT iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TBT ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF
TLT iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
TMV Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares
XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Nowcast Falls To Neutral, Still Buoyed By Consumer Spending
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Volatile Short-Term Forecast Rebounds
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Republics And The War-Making Power
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.
Live-Blogging The Fifteenth Amendment: December 15, 1868
Sen Orrin S. Ferry (R-Conn), in the course of offering a joint resolution to lift the disabilities mandated by the 3rd Section of the Fourteenth Amendment against those who participated in the rebellion:
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Solid Corporate Profits Further Indicate Recession Risk Receding
Recession risk is receding as the weak manufacturing sector is simply not enough to overcome the solid consumer sector.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Stocks Fail To Make New Highs, But Consumers Keep Powering Along
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Dovish Fed Adds To Positive Long-Term Forecast
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.

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