Economy Writer
Contributor's Links: The Bonddad Blog

As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 years ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Housing Permits And Starts Decline Slightly
Housing permits and starts declined, but not by much, in April.
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Industrial Production Continues To Show Excellent Growth
In April the story told by industrial production continued to be very positive, as total production rose by 1.1%, and manufacturing production rose by 0.8%.
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Real Retail Sales Signal Further Expansion
Nominal retail sales for the month of April were up 0.9%, and previous months were revised higher. That means that, after inflation, real retail sales for April were up 0.6%, a very positive number.
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Will Tomorrow’s Real Retail Sales Report Forecast A Recession, Or Just A Continued Slowdown?
Since real retail sales lead to employment and generally are a short leading indicator for the economy as a whole, I wanted to update on what I see as their importance right now.
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With The Fed Already Having Begun To “Stomp On The Brakes”, Inflation Is Still Running Very Hot
The YoY advance in consumer prices, +8.3%, is down from last month’s 8.6%, which was the highest 12-month rate since 1981.
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Real Wages Unchanged, Real Aggregate Payrolls Rose Slightly In April
Consumer inflation for April was +0.3%, the lowest monthly advance since last August.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
FTXR First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF
IYR iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
IYT iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TBT ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF
TLT iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund
TMV Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bear 3x Shares
XTN SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Calm Before The Category 5 Constitutional Hurricane?
All three time frames remain very positive, as they have been for the past month or better. But for the first time, political risk must be mentioned as a factor in the near-term picture.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Rebounding Metrics Confront Rebounding Virus
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: The Housing Market Returns To Life
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: First Likely Impact Of Coronavirus Fears, While Financial Measures Look For A Bottom
Stocks, bonds, and commodities all appeared to grope for a deflationary bottom this past week. Meanwhile, the only "hard" data that likely showed coronavirus impact as a significant further deterioration in intermodal rail shipments.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Nowcast Falls To Neutral, Still Buoyed By Consumer Spending
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Coronavirus And A Jump In Regional Manufacturing Take Center Stage
New orders as reported by the regional Fed bank jumped to their best level since 2018. But this was overwhelmed by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic scare on bonds and commodities in particular.
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: Volatile Short-Term Forecast Rebounds
I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because, while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available.
Republics And The War-Making Power
In view of the military carrying out Trump’s order to kill an Iranian general, I thought I would weigh in on the issue of the war-making power historically by republics.

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