SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 7/12/24 at 5651.01 = gain 10.30%; Long SPX 4/12/24 at 5123.41.

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long SPX on 4/12; sold long 7/12 gain 10.30%. There are 7 trading days left in the month of July. If the SPX manages to close higher than June close than we have a negative divergence in the SPX/VIX ratio. A negative divergence is when the SPX makes higher highs and the SPX/VIX ratio makes lower highs (which we have now) and predicts a pull back in the market. We noted the previous two times shaded in light pink. This divergence can lead to a significant pull back or just a timeout in an uptrend. We are leaning more to the “timeout” scenario. This potential “timeout” could last into September or October. 

Above is the daily SPY. Today’s rally came on light volume suggesting a weak rally. Last week decline came on higher volume showing a “Sign of weakness” suggesting the decline is not done. SPY may try for the gap level near 560 range before turning lower. In general we are expecting the SPY to find support near the 540 range as that is where the TRIN closes closed near 1.20 and higher suggesting that level has panic and panic only forms near lows. A trading range may be developing that could last into September or October. Bigger trend remains bullish and new highs may be seen later this year. Staying SPX neutral for now.

The bottom window is the 50 day average of the Up down volume percent and the top window is the GDX. Momentum plays an important ingredient how long a rally will last. The bottom window measures the momentum of the up down volume. As long as the 50 day average of the up down volume stays above “0” the rally in GDX should continue. We noted in blue when the 50 day average of the up down volume is above “0”; current reading is +9.52.

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