Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 5 And 12
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of December 4 | |||
| December 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - October | -2.5% | 2.8 | -2.6 |
| Durable Goods Orders | -5.4 | 4.6 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.5 | 1.0 | |
| December 5 | |||
| PMI Services Index - November | 50.8 | 50.8 | |
| ISM Services - November | 51.8 | 51.8 | 52.0 |
| JOLTS-October | 9.400M | 9.533 | 9.350 |
| December 6 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - November | 130K | 113 | 128 |
| International Trade - October | -$64.3B | -61.5 | -64.1 |
| Productivity - Q3 (r) | 5.0% | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| December 7 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 220K | 218 | 223 |
| Wholesale Inventories - October (p) | -0.2% | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Wholesale Sales | |||
| Consumer Credit - October | $9.0B | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| December 8 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - November | 150K | 150 | 180 |
| Private | 130 | 99 | 155 |
| Manufacturing | 35 | -35 | 25 |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p) | 61.8 | 61.3 | 62.0 |
| Week of December 11 | |||
| December 12 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November | 90.7 | 90.7 | |
| Consumer Price Index - November | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Core CPI | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Treasury Budget - November | -$219.0B | -66.6 | |
| December 13 | |||
| Producer Price Index - November | 0.1% | -0.5 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.375 | |
| December 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - November | 0.0% | -0.1 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | -0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
| Export Prices - November | -1.0% | -1.1 | |
| Import Prices | 1.0 | -0.8 | |
| Business Inventories - October | 0.0% | 0.4 | |
| December 15 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.0 | 9.1 | |
| Industrial Production - November | 0.3% | -0.3 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 79.1 | 79.4 | |
| Manufacturing | 0.4 | -0.3 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 49.4 | 49.4 | |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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