Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 30 & Nov. 6
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data: | ||||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | ||
| Week of October 30 |
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October 30 |
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Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index |
-16.0 |
-18.1 |
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October 31 |
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Employment Cost Index - Q3 |
1.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y |
4.3 |
4.5 |
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S&P Case/Shiller Index - August |
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Twenty City M/M |
0.3% |
0.6 |
0.5 |
|
Twenty City M/M - SA |
0.9 |
0.6 |
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|
Twenty City Y/Y |
1.6% |
0.1 |
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FHFA House Price Index - August |
0.5% |
0.8 |
|
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Chicago PMI |
46.0 |
44.1 |
45.0 |
|
Consumer Confidence |
100.0 |
103.0 |
100 |
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November 1 |
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ADP Employment Report - October |
135 |
89 |
150 |
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PMI Manufacturing Index - October |
50.0 |
50.0 |
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ISM (Mfg) - October |
48.2 |
49.0 |
49.0 |
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Construction Spending - September |
0.4% |
0.5 |
|
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JOLTS - September |
9.500M |
9.610 |
9.200 |
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Auto Sales* - October |
15.1M |
15.7 |
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Car Sales |
3.2 |
3.2 |
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Truck Sales |
11.9 |
12.4 |
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FMOC |
5.375% |
5.375 |
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November 2 |
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Productivity - Q3 (p) |
4.0% |
3.5 |
4.0 |
|
Unit Labor Costs |
0.8 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
210K |
198 |
210 |
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Factory Orders - September |
2.9% |
1.2 |
1.9 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
4.7 |
0.1 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
1.0 |
2.1 |
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November 3 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls - October |
155K |
336 |
188 |
|
Private |
135 |
263 |
145 |
|
Manufacturing |
-20 |
17 |
0 |
|
Unemployment |
3.8% |
3.8 |
3.8 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.4Hr |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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PMI Services Index |
50.9 |
50.9 |
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ISM Services - October |
52.6 | 53.6 | 53.0 | |
| Week of November 6 | ||||
| November 7 | ||||
| International Trade - September | -$59.7B | -58.3 | ||
| Consumer Credit - September | $12.0B | -15.6 | ||
| November 8 | ||||
| Wholesale Inventories - September | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| November 10 | ||||
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p) | 65.0 | 63.8 | ||
| Treasury Budget - October | $35B | -171.0 | ||
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 23 And 30
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 16 And 23
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 9 And 16
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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