| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of October 23 | |||
| October 23 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.25 | -0.16 | |
| October 24 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 49.0 | 49.8 | 49.5 |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 49.0 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | 5 | |
| October 25 | |||
| New Home Sales - September | 665K | 675 | 680 |
| October 26 | |||
| GDP - Q3 (a) | 4.0% | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Durable Goods Sales - September | 1.2% | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| International Trade in Goods - September (a) | -$85.3B | -84.3 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - September (a) | 0.1% | -0.1 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 210K | 209 | 209 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - September | 70.3 | 71.8 | 70.9 |
| October 27 | |||
| Personal Income - September | 0.4% | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r) | 65.0 | 63.0 | 63.0 |
| Week of October 30 | |||
| October 30 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -16.0 | -18.1 | |
| October 31 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q3 | 1.0% | 1.0 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 4.3 | 4.5 | |
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - August | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.3% | 0.6 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.9 | 0.6 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 1.6% | 0.1 | |
| FHFA House Price Index - August | 0.5% | 0.8 | |
| Chicago PMI | 46.0 | 44.1 | |
| Consumer Confidence | 100.0 | 103.0 | |
| November 1 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - October | 135K | 89 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - October | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - October | 48.2 | 49.0 | |
| Construction Spending - September | 0.4% | 0.5 | |
| JOLTS - September | 9.500M | 9.610 | |
| Auto Sales* - October | 15.1M | 15.7 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Truck Sales | 11.9 | 12.4 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.375 | |
| November 2 | |||
| Productivity - Q3 (p) | 2.8% | 3.5 | |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.2 | 2.3 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 210K | 198 | |
| Factory Orders - September | 1.1% | 1.2 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.1 | 0.1 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 2.1 | |
| November 3 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - October | 155K | 336 | |
| Private | 135 | 263 | |
| Core Private* | |||
| Manufacturing | -20 | 17 | |
| Unemployment | 3.8% | 3.8 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.4Hr | 34.4 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.2 | |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| PMI Services Index | |||
| ISM Services - October | 52.6 | 53.6 | |
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 16 And 23
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 9 And 16
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 2 And 9
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