Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 23 And 30
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of October 23 | |||
| October 23 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.25 | -0.16 | |
| October 24 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 49.0 | 49.8 | 49.5 |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 49.0 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 0 | 5 | |
| October 25 | |||
| New Home Sales - September | 665K | 675 | 680 |
| October 26 | |||
| GDP - Q3 (a) | 4.0% | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Durable Goods Sales - September | 1.2% | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| International Trade in Goods - September (a) | -$85.3B | -84.3 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - September (a) | 0.1% | -0.1 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 210K | 209 | 209 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - September | 70.3 | 71.8 | 70.9 |
| October 27 | |||
| Personal Income - September | 0.4% | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r) | 65.0 | 63.0 | 63.0 |
| Week of October 30 | |||
| October 30 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -16.0 | -18.1 | |
| October 31 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q3 | 1.0% | 1.0 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 4.3 | 4.5 | |
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - August | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.3% | 0.6 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.9 | 0.6 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 1.6% | 0.1 | |
| FHFA House Price Index - August | 0.5% | 0.8 | |
| Chicago PMI | 46.0 | 44.1 | |
| Consumer Confidence | 100.0 | 103.0 | |
| November 1 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - October | 135K | 89 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - October | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - October | 48.2 | 49.0 | |
| Construction Spending - September | 0.4% | 0.5 | |
| JOLTS - September | 9.500M | 9.610 | |
| Auto Sales* - October | 15.1M | 15.7 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Truck Sales | 11.9 | 12.4 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.375 | |
| November 2 | |||
| Productivity - Q3 (p) | 2.8% | 3.5 | |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.2 | 2.3 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 210K | 198 | |
| Factory Orders - September | 1.1% | 1.2 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.1 | 0.1 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 2.1 | |
| November 3 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - October | 155K | 336 | |
| Private | 135 | 263 | |
| Core Private* | |||
| Manufacturing | -20 | 17 | |
| Unemployment | 3.8% | 3.8 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.4Hr | 34.4 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.2 | |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| PMI Services Index | |||
| ISM Services - October | 52.6 | 53.6 | |
More By This Author:
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 16 And 23
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 9 And 16
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 2 And 9
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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