Cotton:

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and trends started to turn down on the daily charts despite some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months. Demand has not been really strong so far this year and the weekly export sales report last week was bad once again. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices and a lower US Dollar to date. USDA released its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday and increased production while cutting back on both domestic and world demand. Ending stocks increased to 3.50 million bales from 3.00 million last month. World-ending stock levels also increased and are now at 89.56 million bales. China had been making some initial moves to open its economy and country again but many cities remain in lockdown due to an increase in Covid infections. China saw protests that were sparked by the deaths of several apartment dwellers in a city that protesters said was locked and on lockdown status. There are reports that China has ended its zero-tolerance Covid policies and is allowing for greater freedom by citizens. Production in the US is very short.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,901 bales, from 8,901 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7650 and 6830 March. Support is at 77.50, 77.30, and 75.80 March, with resistance of 82.40, 83.20 and 85.40 March.

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FCOJ:

General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Ideas are that much of the bullish news is now in the market. USDA estimated Florida production at just 20 million boxes for Oranges this month, down 29% from last month and down 51% from last year. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease have hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. Demand should start to decrease now as the holidays approach, but the tight supply should help keep prices supported on any further attempt to move the prices lower. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and the conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida Citrus said that FCOJ inventories re now 40.3% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 206.00 and 196.00 January. Support is at 205.00, 202.00, and 198.00 January, with resistance at 212.00, 216.00, and 219.00 January.
 

Coffee:

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends turned mixed on the charts. Ideas of reduced Brazilian production and reports of reduced offers into the cash market from Brazil and Vietnam continue, but the weather is good in Brazil and improving in Vietnam. Also, CECAFE showed increased November exports in data released yesterday. Brazil exported 3.7 million bags of Coffee in November, up 14.7% from last year. There are ideas that the production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affecting the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Vietnam's weather is improved now with less rain reported. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remain the main cause for any selling
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 0.681 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 157.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 216 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,232 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 161.00, 157.00, and 154.00 March, and resistance is at 171.00, 177.00 and 183.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1840, and 1830 January, and resistance is at 1930, 1950, and 1970 January.
 

Sugar:

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as traders remain concerned about ongoing rains in Brazil production areas. The harvest has also been delayed in Thailand. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop but bad for harvest and loading at ports as it is still raining in production areas. Some flooding rains have been reported in some areas and some roads to the ports have been blocked by landslides caused by the rains. Even so, the center-south crush was reported by UNICA at 16.2 million tons, an increase of 318.6% from last year one million tons of Sugar were produced and 887.3 million liters of Ethanol were produced. Sugar production was up 532% from a year ago and Ethanol production was up 148%. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply is starting to increase. Brazil's Sugar offers are increasing on ideas of unprofitable Ethanol prices coming to the country and reports of increased use of Corn for Ethanol production Crude Oil futures rallied late last week to help support Ethanol and biofuel demand ideas. Indian exporters continue selling into the world market but might have less than 1.0 million tons available for export under the current quota. The erratic weather in India seen earlier in the year could have cut production and total production could be 7% less than originally expected.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1890 March and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 538.00, 533.00, and 531.00 March and resistance is at 545.00, 548.00, and 550.00 March.
 

Cocoa:

General Comments: New York and London were lower, with London seeing most of the price weakness. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Ivory coast arrivals are now 718,000 tons, up 1.1% from last year. Ivory Coast arrivals at ports are now 838,000 tons, up 6% from last year. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 5.417 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,855 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2470, 2460, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1820 March, with resistance at 1940, 1980, and 2000 March.

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