Grains Report - Monday, Dec. 12

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General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower in all three markets in response to another week of poor export sales and unchanged supply and demand estimates from USDA. The WASDE reports showed unchanged demand for US Wheat despite weak export sales so the market started to work lower again in search of the demand in the face of weaker prices in the Black Sea. Demand concerns continue. The demand for US Wheat in international markets has been a disappointment all year and currently is hindered by low and aggressive offers from Russia. Ukraine is also looking for new business for its crops and Russia is aggressive in the world market as it looks for cash to fund the war. The daily charts for the Chicago markets show mixed trends and demand fundamentals remain bearish. Minneapolis trends are mixed. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and there is still no demand news to help support futures.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 724, 718, and 712 March, with resistance at 760, 782, and 799 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 822, 812, and 806 March, with resistance at 860, 888, and 896 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 894, 888, and 882 March, and resistance is at 915, 924, and 935 March.



General Comments: Rice was sharply lower last week with most of the selling seen in the first part of the week. The weekly export sales report was solid. The USDA WASDE estimates showed 2.0 million cwt less of long grain Rough Rice demand and a corresponding increase in ending stocks. Ending stocks are now estimated at 38.1 million cwt for All Rice and 27/3 million cwt for Long Grain. There is not much going on in the domestic market right now. Trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. Some new Rice producer selling might be found soon as futures and basis are now getting close to being profitable for producers to sell. Most Rice farmers were not paying much attention to the market as they are involved in other pursuits such as hunting. Demand in general has been slow to moderate for Rice for both exports and domestic uses.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1624 January. Support is at 1663, 1645, and 1628 January, and resistance is at 1695, 1707, and 1728 January.


Corn And Oats: 

General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged and Oats closed higher last week with Corn reacting to the USDA WASDE estimates that were released Friday. USDA cut export demand by 75 million bushels and added the same amount to ending stocks. Ending stocks are now estimated at 1.257 billion bushels. Upside price action was hurt by another week of fewer export sales. Corn prices are still hurt by a general lack of demand. Corn is still finding some support in a lack of farmer selling. Weak demand overall for US Corn remains a big problem for the market. The Mississippi river remains low due to the dry conditions seen in most of the central parts of the US. Barge traffic has been reduced. Some water has been falling in the basin now in the form of rain and snow so conditions should be improving. The proposed EPA Ethanol production mandates released last week were less than expected by the trade and hurt Corn demand ideas There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. China is now moving rapidly to open the economy and allow people to move around with no lockdowns so the demand could start to improve. South American prices are currently cheaper than those in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 635, 624, and 612 March, and resistance is at 647, 654, and 658 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 326, 320, and 314 March, and resistance is at 347, 350, and 360 March.



General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower, with Soybean Meal making new contract highs. USDA made no changes in its latest WASDE estimates on Friday and ending stocks were left at 220 million bushels. Trends remain up for Soybean Meal and are turning up for Soybeans but are down for Soybean Oil. The big moves came in the Soybean Meal – Soybean Oil spreads, with Soybean Oil collapsing and Soybean Meal moving to new contract highs. The biofuel mandates proposed by EPA last week increase the production of the fuels, but not by as much as the trade had expected. Conditions in Brazil are called very good in central and northern areas but are dry in the south. Production potential for the country as a whole are called very strong. There was news that China has started to ease Covid restrictions after some demonstrations by the Chinese people. Demonstrations were reported in China a week ago due to the Covid lockdowns as some people were killed in an apartment fire. Ideas that Chinese demand will improve and that Brazil growing conditions are good and getting better. However, it remains dry in Argentina and the crops and the planting pace are suffering. Export demand for the US is improved. Domestic demand should be strong for Soybeans as the crush spreads are strong and provided crushers with a big profit margin for their crushing
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1504 January. Support is at 1478, 1469, and 1465 January, and resistance is at 1493, 1512, and 1518 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 463.00, 453.00, and 448.00 January, and resistance is at 476.00 482.00, and 488.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5790, 5540, and 5430 January, with resistance at 6240, 6340, and 6540 January.


Canola And Palm Oil:

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on Friday and slightly higher last week. It was lower today along with Chicago Soybean Oil. Hopes for improved demand from China were reported but export demand overall has improved lately. China has tried to relax some Covid restrictions so that quarantines now need to be eight days instead of at least two weeks. However, new outbreaks of the virus are being reported so the cities are still imposing lockdowns. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. Demand reports for the current month were stronger yesterday. Canola was higher as well last week. News of less-than-expected biofuel mandates from EPA and on n ideas that Chinese demand can remain weak due to increased outbreaks of Covid there were negative. Demand for export has been less. Farmers are holding tight to harvested supplies. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. Production was much improved this year on better weather during the Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed up with objectives of 913.00 January. Support is at 867.00, 845.00, and 833.00 January, with resistance at 880.00, 891.00, and 900.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3920, 3790, and 3750 February, with resistance at 4120, 4150, and 4180 February.

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