Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was lower last week despite some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months. Demand has not been really strong so far this year and the weekly export sales report was bad once again. Demand has not improved with the reduction in prices and a lower US Dollar to date. USDA released its monthly supply and demand estimates on Friday and increased production while cutting back on both domestic and world demand. Ending stocks increased to 3.50 million bales from 3.00 million last month. World-ending stock levels also increased and are now at 89.56 million bales. China had been making some initial moves to open its economy and country again but many cities remain in lockdown due to an increase in Covid infections. China saw protests that were sparked by the deaths of several apartment dwellers in a city that protesters said was locked and on lockdown status. There are reports that China has ended its zero-tolerance Covid policies and is allowing for greater freedom by citizens. Production in the US is very short.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and above-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.95 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,901 bales, from 8,901 bales yesterday. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 5 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.10, 77.50, and 77.30 March, with resistance of 85.40, 86.00 and 86.40 March.

Photo by Trisha Downing on Unsplash
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday last week, but well off the highs on selling seen on Friday despite a bullish production report from USDA. USDA estimated Florida production at just 20 million boxes for Oranges this month, down 29% from last month and down 51% from last year. The supply situation in the US and in the world market looks tight. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease have hurt production remain in place but are apparently part of the price structure now. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop but not for production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms. Brazil has some rain and the conditions are rated good. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for the coming days. Florida Citrus said that FCOJ inventories are now 40.3% below last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 212.00, 205.00, and 202.00 January, with resistance at 219.00, 227.00, and 231.00 January.
 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week. Ideas of reduced Brazilian production and reports of reduced offers into the cash market from Brazil and Vietnam continue, but the weather is good in Brazil and improving in Vietnam. There are ideas that the production potential for Brazil had been overrated and reports of too much rain in Vietnam affecting the harvest progress. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production potential but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year. Weather conditions are good in Brazil and the rest of Latin America and supplies available to the market should keep increasing the market is looking forward to the increased supplies. Vietnam's weather is improved now with less rain reported. Ideas are that the market will have more than enough Coffee when the next harvest comes in a few months. Ideas of a significant recovery in world production next year remain the main cause for any selling Indonesia Sumatra Coffee exports were 32,290 tons in October, up 15.7% from last month but down almost 40% from September. Colombia produced 1.06 million bags of Coffee in November, down 6% from last year due to big rains. Vietnam Coffee is now about 60% harvested with quality concerns being mentioned due to big rains seen earlier in the harvest period.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are higher today at 0.681 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 152.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near to above-normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 53 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,016 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 146.00 March. Support is at 154.00, 151.00, and 149.00 March, and resistance is at 165.00, 167.00 and 171.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1870, and 1840 January, and resistance is at 1930, 1950, and 1970 January.
 

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as traders remain concerned about ongoing rains in Brazil production areas. The harvest has also been delayed in Thailand. The weather in Brazil remains good for the next crop but bad for harvest and loading at ports as it is still raining in production areas. Some flooding rains have been reported in some areas and some roads to the ports have been blocked by landslides caused by the rains. World Sugar is expected to be in a big surplus production next year. The supply is starting to increase. Brazil's Sugar offers are increasing on ideas of unprofitable Ethanol prices coming to the country and reports of increased use of Corn for Ethanol production Crude Oil futures rallied late last week to help support Ethanol and biofuel demand ideas. Indian exporters continue selling into the world market but might have less than 1.0 million tons available for export under the current quota. The erratic weather in India seen earlier in the year could have cut production and total production could be 7% less than originally expected.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above-normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1910, and 1890 March and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 538.00, 533.00, and 531.00 March and resistance is at 545.00, 548.00, and 550.00 March.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York closed higher last week and London was lower, with London seeing a lot of selling on Friday. Ivory Coast arrivals appear to have improved lately with the recent rally in futures prices. Ivory coast arrivals are now 718,000 tons, up 1.1% from last year. Ivory Coast arrivals at ports are now 838,000 tons, up 6% from last year. Good production is reported and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above-normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 5.435 million bags. ICE NY said that 1 contract was posted for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,855 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2460, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2540, 2570, and 2580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1930, and 1880 March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2020 March.

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