Photo by Amber Martin on Unsplash

Cotton

General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and trends are up again on the charts. USDA made no changes in its monthly supply and demand updates so futures prices were a little lower on Friday. It did trim slightly the world ending stocks estimates for the next crop. USDA reported good export sales again last week. There are forecasts for hot and dry weather to return this week after some showers in West Texas and the rest of the Great Plains over the last couple of weeks and the crop conditions are better than expected after a very hot and dry period in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. It has also been hot and dry in India and crops grown there are thought to be under stress as well. The Indian weather is cooler now. There were ideas that production potential is slipping further due to the previous hot and dry weather in West Texas and the rest of the western Great Plains. Chinese demand was shown in the weekly export sales report. Chinese demand could become less due to the Covid lockdowns there be trimming imports due to Covid and has closed a number of cities as the Covid spreads through the nation. The cities and ports are starting to open up again.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 140.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,087 bales, from 1,087 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 144.00, 151.60, and 152.20 July. Support is at 139.70, 138.00, and 136.10 July, with a resistance of 147.70, 148.70, and 151.90 July.
 

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week and trends are still up on the charts. USDA increased Florida and US production estimates by 1.0 million boxes as Florida Valencia production was increased. The production overall is still about 11% less than a year ago. Logistics on imports is once again a problem with a lot of boats stuck offshore in China. There are concerns that another freeze in Brazil could develop but there is nothing in the forecast for now. The market is short Oranges and short juice production but is also worried about domestic demand destruction as pills are becoming cheaper again. The greening disease has taken its toll on the US crop and the previous Brazil crop was down significantly due to drought. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good, but it is drier now and some trees are developing stress. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get big rains. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 194.00, 197.00, and 204.00 July. Support is at 184.00, 181.00, and 179.00 July, with resistance at 193.00, 19.00, and 200.00 July.
 

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London were lower last week amid reports of less farm selling from Brazil and less demand for Vietnamese Coffee. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation changes for the worse. Temperatures are near to above normal in Brazil and there are no forecasts for frosts or freezes in the short term but the market fears that a freeze could develop. USDA said that Brazil could produce 64.3 million bags of Coffee this year, significantly higher than last year. It could produce 41.5 million bags of Arabica and 22.8 million bags of Robusta.
Overnight News: ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 1.017 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 201.45 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 225.00, 223.00, and 218.00 July, and resistance is at 235.00, 237.00, and 240.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2060, 2030, and 2020 July, and resistance is at 2110, 2130, and 2170 July.

Sugar

General Comments: Both markets were lower last week due mostly to supply concerns. London White Sugar has been better supported as India has limited exports of White Sugar to 10 million tons for the current marketing year and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning most of it into Ethanol but some Sugar is making it into export channels. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. The Indian weather service is predicting a normal monsoon season this year. Support for London also came from ideas of little Sugar coming from Brazil as the mills there are processing Ethanol and limited European offers in part due to the Ukraine war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1900 and 1850 October. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1820 October and resistance is at 1960, 1990, and 2000 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 556.00, 548.00, and 546.00 August and resistance is at 581.00, 587.00, and 589.00 August.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London were lower last week as supply increases and demand does not. Reports of big rains in Ivory Coast supported ideas of big mid-crop production but also brought ideas of moldy deliveries to ports. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain so a good mid-crop production is expected. The weather is good in Southeast Asia. Ghana arrivals have been below year-ago levels.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are much lower today at 5.511 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2380 and 2300 July. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2540 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1730, and 1700 July, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1810 July.