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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed lower and tends are down on the daily charts. The USDA reports showed less production and ending stocks for the current marketing year but did not really move the market that much. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.24 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 46,566 bales, from 43,571 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 17 contracts. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 43,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year. Met Pima sales were 2,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 82.10 and 81.70 December. Support is at 83.40, 82.70, and 83.00 December, with resistance of 85.60, 86.50 and 86.80 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted October 1, 2023
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :———————–: 2022 : 2023
: : : :September 1: October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
:
Upland :
United States …: 7,131.5 7,879.8 942 778 759 13,998.0 12,461.0
American Pima :
United States …: 176.2 141.1 1,280 1,211 1,211 470.0 356.0
All :
United States …: 7,307.7 8,020.9 950 786 767 14,468.0 12,817.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed Production – United States: 2022 and Forecasted October 1, 2023
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2022 : 2023 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
:
United States …: 4,415.0 3,900.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 11.22 13.76 10.23 10.23
Harvested 10.27 7.31 8.02 8.02
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 819 950 786 767
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 13.13 12.82
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 17.39 17.07
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 2.15 2.15
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.30 12.20
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.45 14.35
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.06 -0.08
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 3.00 2.80
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 84.8 80.0 80.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 641 – 18 October 2023

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2023/24 Proj.
World
Sep 93.18 112.39 43.27 115.88 43.27 -0.26 89.96
Oct 82.84 112.60 43.23 115.79 43.24 -0.28 79.92
World Less China
Sep 55.78 85.39 33.27 78.38 43.17 -0.26 53.16
Oct 45.43 85.60 33.23 78.29 43.14 -0.28 43.12
United States
Sep 4.25 13.13 0.01 2.15 12.30 -0.06 3.00
Oct 4.25 12.82 0.01 2.15 12.20 -0.08 2.80
Total Foreign
Sep 88.93 99.26 43.27 113.73 30.97 -0.20 86.96
Oct 78.59 99.79 43.22 113.64 31.04 -0.20 77.12
Major Exporters 4/
Sep 39.88 56.61 1.97 33.21 27.14 -0.20 38.31
Oct 29.62 57.32 2.04 33.22 27.30 -0.20 28.67
Major Importers 8/
Sep 46.12 39.51 38.83 76.44 2.29 0.00 45.73
Oct 46.07 39.39 38.72 76.43 2.20 0.00 45.55
================================================================================
WASDE – 641 – 28 October 2023

DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 12
As of Oct 6. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 39,156 41,108 -1,952 27,686 29,105 -1,419
Mar 24 18,708 17,818 890 3,959 3,817 142
May 24 7,569 7,160 409 212 211 1
Jul 24 10,038 9,900 138 347 334 13
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 5,027 4,793 234 28,618 28,241 377
Mar 25 158 136 22 0 0 0
May 25 44 44 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 53 53 0 0 0 0
Dec 25 375 375 0 871 783 88
Total 81,128 81,387 -259 61,693 62,491 -798
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 23 0 2 -2
Dec 23 130,062 129,073 989
Mar 24 63,399 60,000 3,399
May 24 29,992 27,242 2,750
Jul 24 12,540 11,977 563
Oct 24 7 1 6
Dec 24 18,304 18,671 -367
Mar 25 324 324 0
May 25 16 16 0
Jul 25 3 3 0
Dec 25 4 4 0
Total 254,651 247,313 7,338

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up in response to bullish production estimates released by USDA yesterday. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 415.00 November. Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 November, with resistance at 392.00, 398.00, and 404.00 November.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is

2.74 million tons, up 10 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The
Florida all orange forecast, at 20.5 million boxes (923,000 tons), is
up 30 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 7.50 million boxes
(338,000 tons), up 22 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is
up 35 percent from last season’s final utilization.
The California all orange forecast is 44.5 million boxes (1.78 million tons),
up 3 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The California Navel
orange forecast is 37.0 million boxes (1.48 million tons), unchanged from
last month but up 1 percent from the last season’s final utilization. The
California Valencia orange forecast is 7.50 million boxes (300,000 tons),
up 12 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Texas all orange
forecast, at 800,000 boxes (34,000 tons), is down 29 percent from last
season’s final utilization.

Coffee

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on ollow through buyingafter the Brazil export data was released. Trends are still mixed on the New York daily charts but are down in London. It has been hot and dry in Brazil and the weather is starting to support the prices in New York. Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas has improved. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market. Coffee exports from top robusta producer Vietnam fell an annual 8.3% in the first nine months of 2023, government data showed. Vietnamese differentials are still elevated as the market waits for the new crop to arrive.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.448 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 148.04 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 144.00, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 151.00, 153.00 and 155.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2320 November. Support is at 2340, 2290, and 2260 November, with resistance at 2410, 2460, and 2500 November.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 5.3% in September, Cecafe Says

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in September as growers held bak from selling amid low prices for the arabica variety of beans, according to exporters group Cecafe.

The South American country exported 3.3 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 5.3% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Tuesday. Sales abroad of arabica coffee fell 20.3%, to 2.4 million bags, while exports of robusta beans more than quadrupled to 624,999 bags from 149,757 bags a year earlier.

Exports of ground, roasted and soluble coffee fell 15.9%, to 268,683 bags, Cecafe said.

The decline of prices for arabica coffee on world markets left sellers reluctant to release more of their stocks, according to Cecafe President Márcio Ferreira.

With the lower prices, “coffee growers became more resistant to carrying out new business,” with weak demand from buyers at the same time, he said.

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed mostly higher yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil mills produced 3.36 million tons of sugar in the second half of September, nearly double the amount seen this time last year and above analyst expectations. China estimated imports at 5.0 million tons this year, unchanged from the previous estimate and up from 3.6 million tons last year.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2540, and 2520 March and resistance is at 2680, 2730, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 703.00, 691.00, and 687.00 December, with resistance at 728.00, 733.00, and 741.00 December.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted October 1, 2023
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :————————-: 2022 : 2023
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
California 1/ : 17.7 17.6 45.8 45.8 45.8 811 806
Colorado …..: 20.5 20.6 28.7 27.4 27.3 588 562
Idaho ……..: 170.0 173.0 38.1 39.4 39.2 6,477 6,782
Michigan …..: 138.0 131.0 28.8 33.5 33.4 3,974 4,375
Minnesota ….: 431.0 438.0 25.7 29.6 28.5 11,077 12,483
Montana ……: 33.5 23.5 30.5 33.7 33.7 1,022 792
Nebraska …..: 39.6 46.0 24.2 28.7 28.4 958 1,306
North Dakota .: 249.0 228.0 26.1 27.6 27.7 6,499 6,316
Oregon …….: 7.9 10.4 33.9 37.1 36.8 268 383
Washington …: 2.0 2.0 44.1 44.8 44.8 88 90
Wyoming ……: 27.9 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.6 812 844
United States : 1,137.1 1,118.6 28.6 31.5 31.1 32,574 34,739
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2022 and Forecasted October 1, 2023
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :————————-: 2022 : 2023
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
Florida ……: 401.9 399.0 44.6 45.5 45.5 17,931 18,155
Louisiana ….: 497.1 510.0 32.3 27.2 27.7 16,035 14,127
Texas ……..: 31.2 19.0 22.6 21.3 21.5 705 409
United States : 930.2 928.0 37.3 34.9 35.2 34,671 32,691
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 2159 1977
Production 2/ 9157 9237 8981 8969
Beet Sugar 5155 5168 5223 5151
Cane Sugar 4002 4069 3758 3817
Florida 1934 1983 2034 2037
Louisiana 1944 2010 1682 1738
Texas 124 76 42 42
Imports 3646 3584 3264 3277
TRQ 3/ 1579 1834 1604 1617
Other Program 4/ 298 141 200 200
Non-program 1769 1608 1459 1459
Mexico 1379 1156 1284 1284
High-tier tariff/other 390 453 175 175
Total Supply 14508 14641 14404 14222
Exports 29 70 35 35
Deliveries 12578 12594 12655 12630
Food 12470 12475 12550 12525
Other 5/ 107 119 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 0 0 0
Total Use 12688 12664 12690 12665
Ending Stocks 1820 1977 1714 1557
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 15.6 13.5 12.3
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Sep 964 5224 254 4498 1065 880
Oct 964 5224 285 4627 1011 836
2023/24 Proj.
Sep 880 5800 45 4589 1248 888
Oct 836 5575 322 4699 1124 909
================================================================================
WASDE – 641 – 17 October 2023

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 77% at 44.8M Tons in 2H Sept, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of September compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.

Center-south mills crushed 44.8 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 77% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Tuesday. They produced 3.4 million tons of sugar, up 98%, and made 2.2 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 55%.
The production mix for the second half of September was 51% sugar to 49% ethanol, compared with 45% sugar and 55% ethanol in the same period a year ago.

In the period from April 1 through Sept. 30, mills in the region crushed 493.1 million tons of cane, up 14% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 24% to 32.6 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 8.8% to 23.4 billion liters.The production mix for the season through Sept. 30 was 49.5% sugar to 50.5% ethanol, compared with 45.5% sugar and 54.5% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and remain in a trading range. The EU grind data was stronger than expected.and was down 0.9% from last year. Ivory Coast exports are down 10% so far this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.830 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3370, and 3320 December, with resistance at 3520, 3570, and 3600 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3130 and 3250 December. Support is at 3000, 2950, and 2920 December, with resistance at 3100, 3130, and 3170 December.

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