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Cotton

General Comments: Cotton closed lower and tends turned down on the daily charts. Trading was slow before the release of the USDA reports scheduled for Thursday. Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.43 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 42,986 bales, from 42,172 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 17 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 84.40, 82.10, and 81.70 December. Support is at 85.20, 84.90, and 84.40 December, with resistance of 86.80, 88.00 and 88.70 December.

Date 8-Oct 2-Oct 2022 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 82 75 83 82
Cotton Harvested 25 18 28 24
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 21 20 27 27 5
Cotton Last Week 24 19 27 25 5
Cotton Last Year 15 32 23 25 5

From Bloomberg
2023-24: Avg Low High Sept. Avg vs Prior
US Production 12.91 12.50 13.50 13.13 -0.222
US Exports 12.10 11.65 12.43 12.30 -0.202
US End Stocks 2.96 2.80 3.25 3.00 -0.039
World Production 111.92 111.00 113.00 112.39 -0.467
World Consumption 115.61 115.00 116.00 115.88 -0.273
World End Stocks 89.70 89.30 90.40 89.96 -0.261

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday after trading a little lower during the previous day in consolidation trading. Traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again, but there is nothing showing in the Atlantic or the Gulf for now. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 415.00 November. Support is at 369.00, 366.00, and 359.00 November, with resistance at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 November.

Coffee

General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher yesterday before the Brazil export data was released. Trends are still mixed on the New York daily charts but are down in London. It has been hot and dry in Brazil and the weather is starting to support the prices in New York. Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas has improved. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market. Coffee exports from top robusta producer Vietnam fell an annual 8.3% in the first nine months of 2023, government data showed.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.442 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 146.58 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 144.00, 142.00, and 139.00 December, and resistance is at 151.00, 153.00 and 155.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2320 November. Support is at 2290, 2260, and 2230 November, with resistance at 2360, 2410, and 2460 November.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fell 5.3% in September, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in September as growers held back from selling amid low prices for the arabica variety of beans, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 3.3 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 5.3% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Tuesday. Sales abroad of arabica coffee fell 20.3%, to 2.4 million bags, while exports of robusta beans more than quadrupled to 624,999 bags from 149,757 bags a year earlier.
Exports of ground, roasted and soluble coffee fell 15.9%, to 268,683 bags, Cecafe said.
The decline of prices for arabica coffee on world markets left sellers reluctant to release more of their stocks, according to Cecafe President Márcio Ferreira.
With the lower prices, “coffee growers became more resistant to carrying out new business,” with weak demand from buyers at the same time, he said.

Sugar

General Comments: New York and London closed mostly a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Trends remain up on the daily charts. There are still forecasts for rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered. The Asian dryness is still the main feature. Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indicated that production has suffered. The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil mills produced 3.36 million tons of sugar in the second half of September, nearly double the amount seen this time last year and above analyst expectations.

Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2740, 2850 and 2870 March. Support is at 2640, 2620, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2730, 2790, and 2810 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 729.00 and 753.00 December. Support is at 710.00, 703.00, and 691.00 December, with resistance at 728.00, 733.00, and 741.00 December.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 77% at 44.8M Tons in 2H Sept, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of September compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 44.8 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 77% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Tuesday. They produced 3.4 million tons of sugar, up 98%, and made 2.2 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 55%.
The production mix for the second half of September was 51% sugar to 49% ethanol, compared with 45% sugar and 55% ethanol in the same period a year ago.

In the period from April 1 through Sept. 30, mills in the region crushed 493.1 million tons of cane, up 14% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 24% to 32.6 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 8.8% to 23.4 billion liters.

The production mix for the season through Sept. 30 was 49.5% sugar to 50.5% ethanol, compared with 45.5% sugar and 54.5% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

Cocoa

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.868 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3320, and 3270 December, with resistance at 3520, 3570, and 3600 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2920, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3060, 3100, and 3120 December.

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