Softs Report - Friday, Feb. 17

General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday on what appeared to be follow-through speculative selling and still remains inside the trading range created since the beginning of November. Short term trends could be turning down. Futures are still showing bad demand fundamentals as the weekly export sales reports have shown moderate sales at best. Some ideas that demand could soon increase as China could start to open its economy in the next couple of months as Covid outbreaks should start to weaken as people get vaccinated or immune. Covid is now widespread in China so the beneficial economic effects of the opening are being delayed but these effects should start to be felt as the people there achieve immunity over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and below-normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.96 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 1,147 bales, from 8,900 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8060 and 7630 March. Support is at 81.00, 80.00, and 79.60 March, with resistance of 84.50, 86.00 and 86.70 March.

Image by Ulrike Leone from Pixabay

General Comments: FCOJ was higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Demand should start to weaken again as the northern Winter passes by. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Brazil continues to export to te EU and is increading its exports to the US. Mexico is also exporting to the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 229.00, 220.00, and 214.00 March, with resistance at 237.00, 245.00, and 253.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on a stable US Dollar Index but higher differentials in Brazil. Producers are not offering right now and the market wants its coffee. Ideas of big production for Brazil continue due primarily to rains falling in Coffee production areas now and as offers stayed strong from Brazil and increasingly from Vietnam. Vietnam is estimated to have veery good production this year due to a good growing season and less rain now as harvest expands again. There are ideas that production potential for Brazil had been overrated. The weather in Brazil is currently very good for production pote ntial but worse conditions seen earlier in the growing cycle hurt the overall production prospects as did bad weather last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.840 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get isolated showers in northern areas with near to a4bove normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 62 contracts were tendered for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 62 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 174.00, 172.00, and 165.00 May, and resistance is at 184.00, 189.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2110 and 2170 May. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 2000 May, and resistance is at 2080, 2100, and 2120 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday, and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. Ideas are that the market has priced in production losses in India and Brazil and is providing renumeration for Indian and Thai exporters who want to sell. Thailand expects to export 9.0 million tons of Sugar in the current crop year, 7% more than last year. Ideas of better supplies coming might keep futures prices in check even with a rather tight nearby scenario. Good production prospects are seen for crops in central and northern areas of Brazil, but the south should turn dry again and so should some northern areas. There is concern that the rainy areas will stay too wet and delay the harvest and dilute the Sugar concentrations in the cane. The harvest is active in Thailand. Australia and Central America harvests are also active. European production is expected to be reduced again this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1900 May and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2050 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 564.00, 557.00, and 549.00 May and resistance is at 574.00, 575.00, and 582.00 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday as West African exporters are not offering. Wire reports suggest that exporters are currently looking for Cocoa to make good on current contracts and are not entering into new contracts right now. Trends have turned up in both New York and London. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported in Ivory Coast could curtail mid crop production, but main crop production ideas are strong. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. Good production is reported for the main crop and traders are worried about the world economy moving forward and how that could affect demand. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.088 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2730, 2740, and 2750 March. Support is at 2650, 2590, and 2530 March, with resistance at 2730, 2740, and 2750 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2120 and 2130 March. Support is at 2040, 2020, and 2000 March, with resistance at 2120, 2150, and 2180 March.

More By This Author:

Grains Report - Wednesday, Feb. 15
Softs Report - Tuesday, Feb. 14
Grains Report - Monday, Feb. 13

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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