Grains Report - Wednesday, Oct. 5

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday in correction trading despite a lower US Dollar Index. The Dollar Index has traded from about 115.00 to about 110.00 in the last week. USDA lowered production estimates and also showed much less than expected supplies in the quarterly stocks report that was released on Friday morning. Concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor continued. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 952, 970, and 982 December. Support is at 891, 854, and 849 December, with resistance at 946, 954, and 1002 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 1049 and 1132 December. Support is at 981, 961, and 927 December, with resistance at 1011, 1054, and 1129 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1005, 1017, and 1078 December. Support is at 960, 929, and 907 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1024, and 1056 December.

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General Comments: Rice was a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and as the US Dollar Index moved sharply lower. The index has moved from about 115.00 to about 110.00 in the last week. Harvest progress is now rapid in Arkansas, the largest Rice producing state, and yields and quality are reported to be very strong. Mississippi is also at harvest with much more mixed results. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1695, 1660, and 1607 November. Support is at 1685, 1680, and 1649 November and resistance is at 1719, 1732, and 1742 November.

General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday as the US Dollar Index moved lower and as the market is still feeling the lower stocks estimate released last Friday by USDA. The Dollar Index has moved from about 115.00 to about 110.00 in the last week. The harvest is coming closer in the US and it expected that harvest selling could limit any additional upside moves in the market. A sideways trend is more likely than any major moves up or down. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard. Harvest weather is cool and clear for much of the Midwest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 711,716, and 744 December. Support is at 673, 665, and 662 December, and resistance is at 691, 696, and 699 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 383, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 411, 420, and 425 December.

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as the US Dollar Index moved. The US Dollar Index has moved from about 115.00 to about 110.00 in the last week. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong and from rallies in the petroleum complex and moves lower in the US Dollar. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are still down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August and September. Harvest weather is cool and clear for most of the Midwest at this time. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1339, 1326, and 1320 November. Support is at 1376, 1361, and 1356 November, and resistance is at 1407, 1437, and 1460 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 402.00 and 375.00 December. Support is at 400.00, 396.00, and 388.00 December and resistance is at 412.00 417.00, and 420.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6720 and 57080 December. Support is at 6330, 6130, and 6080 December, with resistance at 6680, 6800, and 7110 December.

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again but higher today on ideas of reduced ending stocks for last month. There are still ideas of bigger production but demand has been very strong in the past month. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but supply ideas are weakening as the peak season for production is passing. Canola was a little lower on higher prices in Chicago and the outside markets against a stronger Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 938 November. Support is at 857.00, 841.00, and 818.00 November, with resistance at 870.00, 877.00, and 891.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3560, 3400, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3920, 3960, and 4020 December.

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Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 3

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