Grains Report - Monday, Oct. 3

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General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on Friday as USDA lowered production estimates and also showed much less than expected supplies in the quarterly stocks report. Concern about Russian intentions with the Black Sea grain export corridor continued. Russia has called for new recruits of at least 300,000 men for the war and threatened once again to use nuclear weapons to get its way in Ukraine. Those countries still need to get the Wheat out through Black Sea ports, but so far this has not been a problem. However, Russia is complaining about its sales and shipments as it harvests a big crop, but the west and that the problem with the exports if Russia’s own doings in the Black Sea The world feels that the Wheat is there and people will not go hungry as long as both countries can export. Russia has threatened to cut off exports from Ukraine unless it can have more exports, too and as it tries to force its will on Ukraine. Russia now appears to be losing the war and could do something rash to try to hold things together. It has moved now to annex the parts of Ukraine it still controls, and the trade expects the war to continue. The demand for US Wheat still needs to show up and right now there is no demand news to help support futures.. Europe is too hot and dry and the US central and southern Great Plains have also been too hot and dry. Planting and initial emergence could be affected Dry weather has affected the Indian production as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers . Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 952, 970, and 982 December. Support is at 801, 854, and 849 December, with resistance at 946, 954, and 1002 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1049 and 1132 December. Support is at 961, 927, and 896 December, with resistance at 1011, 10154, and 1129 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1005, 1017, and 1078 December. Support is at 960, 929, and 907 December, and resistance is at 1004, 1056, and 1066 December.

General Comments: Rice was lower Friday and for the week as the harvest pressure continued. The US harvest is moving along to completion and yield reports have been variable to good as have been quality reports. Some producers are getting done with harvesting in Texas as well as in southern Louisiana Yield reports have been generally good in Louisiana and quality reports are generally good. Yield and quality have been up and down in Texas. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas and Mississippi and the harvest is now very active in both states. Yield reports are variable to very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1507 November. Support is at 1697, 1685, and 1680 November and resistance is at 1742, 1755, and 1762 November.

General Comments: Corn closed higher on Friday and slightly higher for the week as USDA showed much less than expected supplies in its quarterly stocks report that was released on Friday. The harvest comes closer in the US and it expected that harvest selling could limit any additional upside moves in the market.. Oats were higher on Friday but a little lower for the week. The cash market has been strong as the trade is worried about the availability of US Corn in the short run and Ukraine Corn overall. The demand side will need to be watched as Corn demand needs to hold to keep lower ending stocks estimates in play. There are increasing concerns about demand with the Chinese economic problems caused by the lockdowns creating the possibility of less demand as South America has much better crops this year to compete with the US for sales. Export demand in general has been slow so far this year. Ending stocks estimates could be very tight for the coming year if the crop projections hold true. Initial yield reports suggest that total production could be close to the USDA September estimates but lower production is anticipated by some traders as the harvest expands and more yield reports are heard. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling. It is still very hot and dry in parts of China and there is increasing concern about Corn production there this year. It has also been very hot and dry in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 711,716, and 744 December. Support is at 679, 663, and 659 December, and resistance is at 699, 701, and 708 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 383, 369, and 364 December, and resistance is at 400, 411, and 420 December.

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on Friday and for the week after USDA showed larger than expected supplies in the quarterly stocks report. USDA also modified 2021 production estimates and that accounted for much of the increase. Support came from reports that the US cash markets remain very strong. The daily Soybeans charts show that Soybeans trends are down. The trade worried about international weather and supply. Demand remains an issue for the market to contend with. The trade is worried about demand due to a lack of Chinese interest caused by the Covid lockdowns there and in part by the stronger US Dollar. Brazil is still offering and South America as a whole are expected to produce a very big crop later this year for harvest next Spring. However, a third year of La Nina as predicted by meteorologists could cut the production potential. US production ideas remain strong after mostly good weather in August. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and there are fears that China has been importing less as a result.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 110,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1339, 1326, and 1320 November. Support is at 1356, 1344, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1391, 1407, and 1460 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 402.00 and 375.00 December. Support is at 400.00, 396.00, and 388.00 December, and resistance is at 4317.00 420.00, and 431.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5660 and 5000 December. Support is at 6080, 6o20, and 5810 December, with resistance at 6440, 6680, and 6800 December.

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again last week but higher today on ideas of reduced ending stocks for last month. There are still ideas of bigger production and less demand, but SGS and AmSpec have both reported a big increase in demand in its reports released this month. Ideas are that supply and production will be strong, but demand ideas are now weakening and the market will continue to look to the private data for clues on demand and the direction of the futures market. That data has been strong this month. Canola was higher on a lower Canadian Dollar. The Canola harvest approaches. Some of the rally came on continued cash market strength before the harvest. The Canola growing conditions are much improved and production estimates are higher for the year. The market is still short of Canola in the near term due to the reduced production of last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 838 November. Support is at 816.00, 808.00, and 795.00 November, with resistance at 857.00, 870.00, and 877.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2730 December. Support is at 3220, 3160, and 3040 December, with resistance at 3640, 377e0, and 3930 December.

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Softs Report - Monday, Oct. 3
Grains Report - Wednesday, Sept. 28
Softs Report - Monday, Sept. 26

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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