Softs Report - Monday, Sept. 26

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply lower to limit down on Friday and lower for the week as the US Dollar moved sharpy higher and on weak export sales reported in the weekly report. Price trends remain down. Traders are worried about a global recession and demand in that recession. The late season weather in the Great Plains was better and the crop showed improvement but production is still very short. The harvest is appearing n the market, and the market is preparing for it with sideways to lower prices. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns but is also worried about total US production potential. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 93.22 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 715 bales, from 715 bales yesterday. ICE aid that 0 notices were posted against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 91.60, and 88.80 December, with resistance of 97.80, 103.00 and 106.00 December.

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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week as supplies look short for the market. The weather remains generally good for production worldwide for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. More showers are in the forecast for the coming days. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures. Mexican areas are showing mixed trends, with dry weather in some northern areas but better weather to the south. FCOJ inventories are now 40.8% less than a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 194.00 November. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 174.00 November, with resistance at 184.00, 189.00, and 192.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but a little higher for the week as the US Dollar rallied sharply on Friday. CONAB earlier in the week estimated total Coffee production this year at 50.38 million bags, from 47.72 million last year and 53.43 million estimated earlier in the year. Arabica production is estimated at 32.41 million bags and Robusta production is estimated at 17.97 million bags. Small offers in Arabica are reported from Brazil. The weather forecasts for Brazil Coffee areas call for showers. There is a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year. Overall Brazil Coffee exports were less in data released last week. There is concern that Brazil will produce less Coffee this year due to very dry conditions after early rains led to premature flowering. Vietnam has also been dry and wire reports from there indicate that production losses are likely. The cash market remains strong. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.472 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 195518 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 3 contracts were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,523 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 216.00, 211.00, and 210.00 December, and resistance is at 226.00, 231.00 and 234.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 November, and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2350 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week despite lower moves late in the week, and the nearby months led the way higher as supplies were not strong enough to meet the demand. It looks like the supply side is still short. The New York market is worried about ethanol demand in Brazil will force mills down there to continue to produce more Sugar for export and Crude Oil futures have been weaker recently. The Brazilian president has lowered the fuel taxes in Brazil and this is squeezing the profit margins of the mills. The mills could produce much more Sugar over time due to the tax changes but so far have not produced enough to meet the demand. The London market had been looking for increased White Sugar supplies from origin and now is also worried about demand after recent price strength and because of the loss of economic power generated by the war in Ukraine. Indian White Sugar exports have so far not been enough to meet the demand.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get scattered showers in eastern areas and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1710, 1660, and 1640 March. Support is at 1720, 1690, and 1660 March and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 510.00 and 485.00 December. Support is at 520.00, 510.00, and 500.00 December and resistance is at 540.00, 543.00, and 549.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were both lower last week and short term trends started to turn down. New York was the weakest market as the US Dollar moved sharply higher. Ideas of big production and uncertain demand are still around but reports from Africa indicate that demand has improved lately. Trends are mixed in New York. Reports indicate that buyers of Cocoa have enough coverage for now and can afford to wait for lower prices to develop. Supplies of Cocoa are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Reports of scattered showers along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good in West Africa. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 5.638 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2200 December. Support is at 2220, 2190, and 2160 December, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2350 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 December. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 December, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1970 December.


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Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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