Grains Report - Tuesday, May 16

variety of assorted-color beans

Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash


WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday, with Kansas City leading the way and Minneapolis trading higher. Chicago SRW futures were higher. The moves came in part in reaction to the USDA production estimates released on Friday and in part on speculative buying seen in most commodities markets yesterday. The Black Sea corridor deal looks ready to end this week to add support to prices here. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 690 and 715 July. Support is at 641, 626, and 611 July, with resistance at 670, 682, and 6898 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 938 July. Support is at 885, 867, and 854 July, with resistance at 912, 924, and 936 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 910 July. Support is at 849, 832, and 825 July, and resistance is at 876, 886, and 895 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative and new commercial selling. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1769, 1758, and 1749 July and resistance is at 1799, 1815, and 1824 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying seen in just about all commodities markets. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for the rest of this week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 569 July, and resistance is at 601, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 326, 330, and 322 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative buying seen in almost all commodities markets. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1384, 1372, and 1360 July, and resistance is at 1417, 1430, and 1446 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 451.00 July. Support is at 430.00, 424.00, and 416.00 July, and resistance is at 443.00, 450.00, and 456.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4880, 4800, and 4680 July, with resistance at 5060, 5090, and 5240 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on Chicago price action and on ideas of reduced supplies and production. Futures were lower on follow through selling today. The rebound did not happen in April as production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. The report was expected to support Palm Oil futures at this time. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts and are now sideways on the daily charts. Canola was higher yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and dry conditions for planting in the Prairies. Trends are mixed on the weekly charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 710.00, 701.00, and 696.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 748.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3620, 3550, and 3530 July, with resistance at 3700, 3840, and 3880 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Tuesday, May 16
Softs Report - Monday, May 15
Grains Report - Thursday, May 11

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.