COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week, but rebounded on Friday on the back of the latest USDA production and WASDE reports. USDA said final production for the current year was 14.68 million bales. It estimated current year ending stocks at 3.5 million bales. USDA estimate production next year at 15.5 million bales and total supply at just over 19 million bales. Total use was estimated at 15.7 million bales so ending stocks are estimated to be 3.3 million bales at the end of the next crop year. USDA showed the potential for a tight supply and demand situation looking forward. Traders were adjusting positions before the WASDE report today. Demand has been good, but the market is starting to shift attention to the new crop. Planting intentions showed only weak production ideas, but demand has been less until reviving lately. Forecasts for rain are still showing in forecasts for West Texas but the rains are expected to be lighter and more scattered than last week. The rains last week were spotty so more rain in new areas would be very beneficial. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.28 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 75 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.50, 78.60, and 78.10 July, with resistance of 81.80, 83.10, and 84.10 July.

Photo by Amber Martin on Unsplash

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and featured selling in response to the USDQ production estimates released on Friday. USDA estimated production down at 15.7 million boxes for Florida. The market response implies that the lower production is already factored into the price. Trends are down in this market despite very tight supplies as there has not been any news to keep bulls in the market lately. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Florida Citrus Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are 33% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 240.00 and 220.00 July. Support is at 237.00, 229.00, and 227.00 July, with resistance at 250.00, 255.00, and 260.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a little lower, and London was higher in range trading on Friday, but both markets closed a little lower for the week. There are reports of increased offers of Robusta from Brazil, and good weather is noted for Arabica production there, with high production expectations for Brazil. The Arabica harvest is now just a few weeks away and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase at that time. Charts trends are sideways on the daily charts. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Arabica harvest should be active in the next few weeks. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement. Brazil said that April exports were 14% less than a year ago at 2.7 million bags. Exports of both Arabica and Robusta beans were less than a year ago, but exports of roasted, ground, and soluble coffee were higher than a year ago.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.644 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 615 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 181.00, 180.00, and 177.00 July, and resistance is at 190.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2340 and 2220 July. Support is at 2380, 2320, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2460, 2500, and 2530 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both New York and London closed slightly lower last week, and trends remain sideways in both markets. The market was hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. Concern was noted about Chinese demand and the Brazil harvest is now just a few weeks away. Chinese demand has been a mystery as no one knows how much they will eventually buy. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start becoming available soon. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions. Brazil said that center-south Sugarcane processing was 21 million tons this year, down 13% from last year as fields to be harvested got too much rain. Sugar production was 988,970 tons, up 5.9% from last year, and ethanol production was 978 million liters, down 11% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2590, 2560, and 2490 July and resistance is at 2680, 2720, and 2750 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 730.00, 733.00, and 736.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again last week as ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.664 million bags. ICE NY said that 9 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,265 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3080 July. Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2900 July, with resistance at 3050, 3070, and 3100 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2310 and 2380 July. Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2380 July.

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