Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday on buying seen in reaction to reports that funds and other speculators are short the market and the continued drought in the western US and around the world. More showers are in the forecast for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. It is also dry in the Canadian Prairies, especially in western areas, and producers are worried about planting. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. US Spring Wheat planting progress has been slow due to wet soils caused mostly by the huge snows seen earlier this Winter that have been melting. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and to the UN but has rejected potential solutions so far. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the 000world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export. The daily charts show up trends for all three markets. Weekly chart trends are down for SRW and Spring Wheat and mixed for HRW.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 680 and 718 July. Support is at 644, 627, and 622 July, with resistance at 670, 683, and 688 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 860 July. Support is at 832, 812, and 797 July, with resistance at 859, 863, and 886 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 863 and 910 July. Support is at 825, 815, and 810 July, and resistance is at 856, 864, and 872 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed narrowly mixed yesterday after the big up week last week. It looked like traders were consolidating recent gains. Chart trends are up and overbought for the daily charts and are up on the weekly charts. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1800, 1795, and 1782 July and resistance is at 1849, 1861, and 1866 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn buyers still looking for product in nearby months, but sellers content to take new crop months lower.. It looked like the funds and other speculators were covering short positions in the old crop months. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected this week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 615 and 638 July. Support is at 588, 580, and 572 July, and resistance is at 601, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 328, 322, and 310 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed yesterday, as Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower but Soybean Meal was higher. Soybean Oil trends are still up on the daily charts. Trends are turning up in Soybeans but are sideways at best for Soybean Meal. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Production ideas in Argentina are less than 25 million tons, or less than half a crop. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1471, 1478, and 1509 July. Support is at 1428, 1419, and 1411 July, and resistance is at 14346, 1456, and 1460 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 418.00, and 411.00 July, and resistance is at 430.00, 434.00, and 437.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5510 and 5750 July. Support is at 5260, 5180, and 5090 July, with resistance at 5510, 5560, and 5620 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today and yesterday on Chicago price action. Selling was seen earlier in the week from news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Indian imports are at a 14 month low. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are up on the daily charts. Canola was missed yesterday, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 744.00 and 771.00 July. Support is at 718.00, 701.00, and 688.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 752.00, and 760.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3650, 3830, and 3840 July. Support is at 3620, 3530, and 3500 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3900 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

More By This Author:

Weekly Ag Markets Update - Monday, May 8
Softs Report - Thursday, May 4
Weekly Agriculture Markets Update - Monday, May 1