Grains Report - Thursday, May 11
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little lower yesterday on positioning before the USDA export sales report and the WASDE report. Reports indicate that funds and other speculators are short the market and the continued drought in the western US and around the world. More showers are in the forecast for the central and southern Great Plains for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. It is also dry in the Canadian Prairies, especially in western areas, and producers are worried about planting. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. US Spring Wheat planting progress has been slow due to wet soils caused mostly by the huge snows seen earlier this Winter that have been melting. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the 000world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 627, 622, and 611 July, with resistance at 653, 670, and 683 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 860 July. Support is at 832, 812, and 797 July, with resistance at 859, 863, and 886 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 910 July. Support is at 833, 825, and 815 July, and resistance is at 864, 876, and 886 July.
Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday, with new crop prices lower in response to the rapid planting and emergence seen in the USDA progress reports released on Monday afternoon. Traders were getting ready for the USDA export sales report released this morning and the WASDE report to be released tomorrow afternoon. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1795, 1782, and 1769 July and resistance is at 1840, 1849, and 1861 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday as traders prepared for the export ales report being released earl today and the monthly WASDE report that will be released tomorrow morning. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for the rest of this week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 569 July, and resistance is at 590, 594, and 601 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 328, 322, and 310 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday, but Soybean Meal closed higher and trends are mixed on the charts for all three markets. Mucgh of the trading was in anticipation of the weekly export sales report that was released this morning and the WASDE report being released tomorrow. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1392, 1384, and 1372 July, and resistance is at 1418, 1430, and 1446 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 416.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00, and 434.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5180, 5090, and 5060 July, with resistance at 5350, 5510, and 5560 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on Chicago price action. Indian imports are at a 14 month low. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 723.00, 718.00, and 701.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 748.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3650, 3830, and 3840 July. Support is at 3620, 3530, and 3500 July, with resistance at 3880, 3900, and 3940 July.
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