WHEAT 

General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher yesterday as tensions between the west and Russia increased over Ukraine. There were renewed demand hopes as war becomes more possible.  Russia is escalating the crisis to test US and NATO resolve and a war is now more likely or at least some severe sanctions that could end the export programs for both Russia and Ukraine.  It remains dry in the western Great Plains with no real relief in sight.   USDA rated the crop conditions down in the latest monthly report released yesterday. Ideas had been that the US will have good demand for Wheat as the rest of the northern hemisphere is short production this year but so far demand has been average or less against previous years.  Offer volumes are down in Europe.  Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies caused a lot less production.  The lack of production has reduced the offers and Russia has announced sales quotas.  Australian crop quality should be diminished.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should trend from below to above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend from below to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures should average above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 806 and 841 March.  Support is at 776, 771, and 758 March, with resistance at 808, 824, and 840 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives.  Support is at 803, 793, and 786 March, with resistance at 829, 840, and 871 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 933, 915, and 908 March, and resistance is at 951, 965, and 972 March.

Photo by Sandy Ravaloniaina on Unsplash

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be some commercial and some speculative buying.  Trends are still up in the market.  The USDA reports showed less production and imports and smaller ending stocks.  Demand was trimmed as well, but the supply was cut more.  Futures and cash market trading have been quiet until now and the cash market is still quiet but domestic mill business is around everywhere.  Many producers are not interested in selling.  Mills are showing more interest in the market as previously bought supplies start to run low.  The cash market is reported to be relatively strong as prices have held firm and as activity increases.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1483 March.  Support is at 1453, 1437, and 1410 March and resistance is at 1483, 1488, and 1491 March.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:  Corn closed higher again yesterday as the tensions over Ukraine increased.  The US and Wet Europe are at odds with the Russians as Russia looks set to invade Ukraine.  The market worries about war and interrupted Corn shipments from Ukraine and Russia.  Rains have arrived to help dry soils in South America.   The markets heard about potential improvement in growing conditions in South America.  Central Argentina got the best rains again and the other areas were still dry or got significantly less rain.  Showers are now predicted for southern Brazil and the rest of Argentina and Paraguay and the situation there should become more stable.  Northern Brazil is expected to be drier to help with conditions there.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 650 March.  Support is at 611, 604, and 600 March, and resistance is at 624, 630, and 636 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 616, 601, and 590 March, and resistance is at 645, 666, and 677 March.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed lower as rains returned to dry soils in South America last week and are likely to continue. However, the benefits will be felt mostly in central Argentina and perhaps southern Argentina.  Showers are forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina late this week.  New demand is now thought to come from China as rumors of new business with that destination hit the floor.  China has now been a buyer for two days.  Soybean Oil was lower on price weakness in Palm Oil and Crude Oil.  The rains last week mostly fell in northern Brazil with southern Brazil, much of Argentina, and Paraguay still mostly dry.  The drier areas are getting some precipitation now but central Argentina will get the best rains.  Only scattered showers are forecast for the other areas although conditions are slated to improve somewhat in all of the dry areas,  Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1486 March.  Support is at 1378, 1369, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1430, 1437, and 1444 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 384.00 and 359.00 March.   Support is at 385.00, 380.00, and 372.00 March, and resistance is at 405.00 415.00, and 420.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6290 and 6320 March.  Support is at 6120, 6000, and 5960 March, with resistance at 6380, 6500, and 6620 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL 

General Comments:  Palm Oil was a little higher yesterday in sympathy with the outside markets.  Crude Oil was higher.  The export data from the private sources was as bad as expected.  There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.  Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels.  Production conditions have been very poor and workers are not often in the fields.  Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago.  Farmers are bullish and reluctant to sell because of the sharp reduction in Canola production in Canada this year.  The buy side thinks that Canola is fully priced but the farmers are still holding out for more.  Chart trends are mixed for the daily charts.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 983.00, 977.00, and 959.00 March, with resistance at 1010.00, 1026.00, and 1038.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 5040, 4980, and 4850 April, with resistance at 5360, 5420, and 5480 April.