Grains Report - Thursday, July 28

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Ukraine thinks it can export via the Black Sea even with Russian bombing. Russia said exports of Wheat have increased significantly so far this season. Russia had bombed the Odessa port and maybe more ports in Ukraine. Both countries along with the UN had come to an agreement to allow for Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea but then Russia blew up the port the next day and threw the whole agreement into doubt. Those doubts increased earlier this week as new reports suggested more bombing was going on. It is thought to be unlikely that much will move from Ukraine right away as the infrastructure internally and at the ports needs to be rebuilt and now more damage has been added to Ukrainian ports. It is also unknown how much Wheat and Corn could be available for export even with no infrastructure problems as many areas have been bombed by the Russians. Trends are still turning down in all three markets Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 718, 684, and 641 September. Support is at 766, 754, and 744 September, with resistance at 825, 843, and 854 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 738 September. Support is at 853, 833, and 820 September, with resistance at 889, 898, and 908 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 899, 869, and 853 September, and resistance is at 937, 956, and 999 September.

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RICE
General Comments: Rice was narrowly mixed yesterday, with nearby months a penny lower and deferred months half a cent higher. Trends are turning up again on the daily charts. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1697, 1676, and 1652 September and resistance is at 1719, 1730, and 1754 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on follow through buying tied to the weather forecasts that featured a return to hot and dry weather and on the lower than expected crop condition ratings released Monday by USDA. The bombing of the Odessa port in Ukraine by Russian armed forces was also a reason to buy Corn as Corn is a big export item for Ukraine. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward and news that Ukraine thinks it will still be able to export through the Black Sea even with the Russian bombing. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts returned for the long term. Crop condition ratings were a little worse than expected by the trade in the Monday USDA reports and look to suffer more when the hot weather returns to the Midwest from the Great Plains. The weather is just too variable in the US for top production and yields. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 638 and 710 September. Support is at 581, 565, and 562 September, and resistance is at 613, 624, and 634 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 435, 421, and 416 September, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 490 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative buying as the weather forecasts became hot and dry again after some showers early this week and as USDA showed more deterioration in the crop condition ratings released on Monday than the trade had expected. Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this week before the hot and dry conditions return. More crop condition losses are possible in the coming weeks as the hot and dry weather arrives just in time for pod setting and filling. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. There are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There are currently lockdowns to varying degrees in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying mostly new crop Soybeans from the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1619 and 1764 August. Support is at 1553, 1514, and 1490 August, and resistance is at 1607, 1617, and 1626 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 503.00 August. Support is at 469.00, 460.00, and 452.00 July, and resistance is at 475.00 480.00, and 486.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6000, 5760, and 5670 August, with resistance at 6400, 6470, and 6500 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little higher today on news that China had committed to buy another 1.0 million tons of Palm Oil from Indonesia. It was positive demand news for a market that needed some new demand. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was higher along with Soybean Oil and Palm Oil. Crude Oil was also higher and the rally in petroleum supported rallies in vegetable oils. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent daysbut the rains are bring some concerns about disease showing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 724.00 and 702.00 November. Support is at 809.00, 781.00, and 767.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 861.00, and 877.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3470, and 3400 October, with resistance at 4080, 4120, and 4340 October.


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