Softs Report - Friday, July 22
Photo by Anastasiia Chepinska on Unsplash
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on what seemed to be speculative selling. The trade is still worried about demand moving forward due to recession fears and Chinese lockdowns. The Chinese had been reopening the economy and country lately as Covid faded, but some reports of a new variant found there could shut the country down again in the near term. The quarantine is one week now instead of one month as before. Current weather forecasts call for hot and dry conditions for much of the Great Plains including west Texas Cotton area. It is possible that the continued Chinese lockdowns will continue to hurt demand for imported Cotton for that country and that a weaker economy in the west will hurt demand from the rest of the world.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 104.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,277 bales, from 8,277 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 88.80, 88.10, and 82.60 December, with resistance of 96.40, 96.70 and 99.50 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday on a stronger US Dollar and on what appeared to be renewed speculative selling tied as much to the financial markets as anything. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts but daily chart trends are now trying to turn up. The recent market weakness has been dramatic since the market made new contract highs earlier this month. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with some showers and warm temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 151.00, 149.00, and 145.00 September, with resistance at 158.00, 162.00, and 166.00 September.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday in correction trading. Trends are mixed on the daily charts after the recent move higher. Futures remain rather cheap when compared to the cash market and certified stocks keep dropping. Demand for Coffee overall is thought to be less as the world economic situation is not strong but the strong cash market means that even less Coffee is on offer. There is less Coffee on offer from origin, with Brazil offering less and Central America and Vietnam offering less as well. The weather in Brazil is good for Coffee production and any harvest activities. Temperatures are above normal in Brazil and conditions are mostly dry.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.712 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 190.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 210.00, 205.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 220.00, 226.00 and 228.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1940, and 1910 September, and resistance is at 2020, 2060, and 2090 September,
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on what appeared to be follow through selling that was seen in many ag markets yesterday. Futures have now given back most or all of the recent up move and could work lower. The London market had been looking for increased supplies from origin and now is more worried about demand after recent price strength. Trends are still mixed in New York and in London. is reported to have a big crop of Sugarcane coming and as Brazil is harvesting its crop of Sugarcane and turning much of it into Ethanol but is still making some Sugar and some of that Sugar is making it into export channels. Thailand is still offering and exporting. Reports from India indicated that conditions are generally good for Sugar production. Monsoon rains have been good in India this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get isolated showers in eastern areas and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1760, 1720, and 1660 October. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 October and resistance is at 1880, 1920, and 1960 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 518.00, 510.00, and 508.00 October and resistance is at 537.00, 545.00, and 555.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on what appeared to be selling interest from speculators amid signs that supplies of Coco are as large as they will be now for the rest of the marketing year. Trends are mixed. Reports of sun and dry weather along with very good soil moisture from showers keep big production ideas alive in Ivory Coast. Ideas are still that good production is expected from West Africa for the year. The weather is good for harvest activities in West Africa but the harvest should be winding down now. Current reports from Ivory Coast indicate that the weather is a good mix of sun and rain. The weather is good in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.554 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2350, 2400, and 2420 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1650 September, with resistance at 1750, 1770, and 1780 September.
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