Grains Report - Friday, July 15
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WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be follow-through fund selling tied to news that Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine are closer to agreement to allow exports from Ukraine via the Black Sea. USDA increased production and ending stocks in its latest reports released Tuesday. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Demand remains poor for US Wheat. The Winter Wheat harvest is expanding through the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports have been variable in Kansas. Hot and dry weather is back for this week to southern areas while northern areas have more moderate temperatures and some rains. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry and India and Pakistan are both past major heat waves and dry conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 785, 778, and 770 September, with resistance at 854, 914, and 940 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 833, 821, and 801 September, with resistance at 908, 948, and 978 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 912, 871, and 853 September, and resistance is at 952, 999, and 1044 September.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday but held to the recent trading range in consolidation trading. USDA made only slight modifications in its supply and demand tables so the reports were not a major event for this market. Demand was cut for all grades of Rice but this had been expected as demand has been less than hoped for this year and the higher US Dollar now should keep bad demand ideas around. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year. The speculators have been the best sellers lately even with perceived bullish fundamental news as many are worried about a world wide recession.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1628, 1622, and 1605 September and resistance is at 1663, 1672, and 1686 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading and after moving lower in the overnight market. Futures held above support areas and then staged a recovery during the day session, but faded late as some of the buying dried up. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts are around. Selling came from a sharply higher US Dollar that can curb export demand. Crude Oil was lower and ethanol demand could get hurt soon. The WASDE reports from Tuesday showed increased ending stocks for the current year and the coming crop year. USDA lowered demand for this year and left demand unchanged for the coming year and production unchanged for the current year and changed production for the coming year in line with the acreage changes from the June 30 reports. Yield estimates for the coming year were left unchanged.. Traders have heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains in recent days, but many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and the Corn in these areas should be able to withstand some heat and dry weather. The hot and dry forecasts are coming just when pollination is expected so yields could be cut anyway. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.. Corn has emerged under what is considered good conditions but it has been hot in the Midwest and many areas have been dry. The forecast for more dire weather is concerning in these areas most of all. Illinois and Iowa are in the best shape to withstand the hot and dry weather should it develop.
Overnight News: China bought 133,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 585, 582, and 577 September, and resistance is at 617, 634, and 645 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 452, 436, and 421 September, and resistance is at 485, 50`, and 509 September.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Oil were lower as the US Dollar was sharply higher. Soybean Meal rallied and made new highs for the move. The WASDE reports released Tuesday showed increased ending stocks for the current year and the coming crop year. USDA lowered demand for this year and left demand unchanged for the coming year and production unchanged for the current year and changed production for the coming year in line with the acreage changes from the June 30 reports. Yield estimates for the coming year were left unchanged. Traders heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains recently but many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and the Soybeans in these areas should be able to withstand some heat and dry weather. The hot and dry forecasts are coming just when the pod set is expected to start so yields could be cut anyway.. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. The US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. Ideas are that purchased could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1445, 1424, and 1414 August, and resistance is at 1516, 1553, and 1573 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with obj3ectives of 441.00 and 503.00 August. Support is at 429.00, 422.00, and 420.00 July, and resistance is at 448.00 454.00, and 457.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5060 and 4340 August. Support is at 5670, 5490, and 5400 August, with resistance at 6290, 6290, and 65470 August.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker crude oil markets and on expectations of building supplies inside of Malaysia. Refiners have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation.. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was a little higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. Ideas of poor demand have hit this market as well as the others and for the same reasons as funds were the best sellers in this market. The crops are going in the ground and the growing conditions are much improved. There are ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about South American production as well. Canada produced a very short crop of Canola last year so supplies are tight.
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