WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Ukraine, Russia, and the UN would come to an agreement to allow for Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea.  The deal gives Ukraine 120 days to export grain including Wheat and then must be renewed.  It is thought to be unlikely that much will move from Ukraine right away as the infrastructure internally and at the ports needs to be rebuilt.  It is also unknown how much Wheat and Corn could be available for export even with no infrastructure problems as many areas have been bombed by the Russians.  Egypt negotiated directly with sellers instead of via tender and US prices are thought to be competitive.  The country appears to have bought over 800,000 tons of world Wheat.  Trends are turning down again in all three markets  Export demand is thought to be improving as US prices are now competitive in the world market and many are still scared to send boats into the Black Sea to pick up Russian or Ukrainian Wheat.  The Winter Wheat harvest is now more than 70% complete through the Great Plains and Midwest.  Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas.  Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable.  Europe is too hot and dry.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 718, 684, and 641 September.  Support is at 744, 738, and 732 September, with resistance at 843, 854, and 914 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 738 September.  Support is at 801, 790, and 783 September, with resistance at 958, 898, and 908 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 845 and 781 September.  Support is at 853, 845, and 838 September, and resistance is at 920, 956, and 999 September.

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RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher last week and trends on the weekly charts are up. The market acts as if the down side has been exhausted for now but traders need to find a reason to send prices much higher.  It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks.  Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential.  Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition.  Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions.  Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1676, 1662, and 1646 September and resistance is at 1730, 1754, and 1778 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2022.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on the weather forecasts that moderated overnight on temperatures and introduced the possibility of some rain to the Midwest this weekend.  Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward and on news that Ukraine and Russia has made a deal to permit Ukraine grain exports for the next 120 days. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts were moderated as forecast temperatures are now a little cooler and there is some potential for some showers this weekend.  Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 551 and 523 September.  Support is at 565, 562, and 556 September, and resistance is at 585, 602, and 624 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 452, 436, and 421 September, and resistance is at 477, 497, and 501 September.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans were lower last week but both products were a little higher on improved weather forecasts.  Many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this weekend.  Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. The US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result.  There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there.  The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month as they were before.  Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there.  China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America.  They have been buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1388, 1370, and 1320 August.  Support is at 1408, 1402, and 1391 August, and resistance is at 1445, 1465, and 1491 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 428.00, 422.00, and 420.00 July, and resistance is at 440.00 442.00, and 448.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5760, 5670, and 5400 August, with resistance at 6130, 6400, and 65470 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments:  Palm Oil was a little higher last week in consolidation trading.  Futures closed lower today in range trading.  Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply.  Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation.  Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels.  Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months.  Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production.  Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil and on a stronger Canadian Dollar.  The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days. 

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 724.00 and 702.00 November.  Support is at 788.00, 781.00, and 763.00 November, with resistance at 833.00, 861.00, and 877.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3520, 3470, and 3400 October, with resistance at 4080, 4120, and 4340 October.

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