Grains Report - Friday, April 28

variety of assorted-color beans

Photo by Maddi Bazzocco on Unsplash

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. The weekly export sales report was bad once again. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. The western Great Plains are getting showers and some areas are seeing very beneficial precipitation this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 626, 620, and 614 July, with resistance at 645, 665, and 671 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 760, 754, and 748 July, with resistance at 781, 808, and 822 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 780, 774, and 768 July, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in relatively narrow range trading on selling from speculators seen in most markets. Trends are sideways on the charts. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1686, 1680, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1724, 1744, and 1749 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday, with Corn still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial buying interest. The export sales report was bad and China cancelled purchases again. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 580, 574, and 568 July, and resistance is at 597, 601, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 309, 306, and 303 July, and resistance is at 324, 328, and 333 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1371 July. Support is at 1401, 1396 and 1384 July, and resistance is at 1412, 1423, and 1440 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 420.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 431.00, 434.00, and 443.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5090, 4920, and 4800 July, with resistance at 5190, 5270, and 5420 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on nes that Indonesia will reduce its domestic su[ply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday on weakness in Chicago. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 700.00, 694.00, and 688.00 July, with resistance at 721.00, 739.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3340 July, with resistance at 3560, 3660, and 3670 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Wednesday, April 26
Grains Report - Tuesday, April 25
Softs Report - Monday, April 24

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