S&P 500 refused to decline below Monday‘s lows – as rate cut odds went up much again, it took a while to recover from poor JOLTS. As Powell opened the door lately (to rate cuts) on unexpected weakness in the labor market if it materializes, we‘re getting there slowly, and Friday is non-farm payrolls and revisions day.

With the corporate profitability quarterly data negative lately, the data proofs of a weakening economy generate less traction in equities (cyclicals and smallcaps) and instead a greater dive in yields as market participants pile into Treasuries whenever stagflation or recession (justifiably) spooks them.

Today will be an eventful day with non-farm employment change as that‘s SME barometer – and I‘m also looking for a decent move in oil, not just equities.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

The dive in yields continues and isn‘t yet providing much support to precious metals, to the safe haven element of their function. The more rate cuts approach, the nearer they are to an upside turnaround, and we haven‘t seen that for a week already. The price difference between London and Shanghai remains the same, $5 in silver, which also should provide a floor as much as inconclusive Indian elections coupled with record imports in the prior quarter compared to the whole last year in India. The strongest buyers appear to be now in wait-and-see mode.

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